Vitoria vs Gremio — AI prediction

Result

Vitoria 1-0 Gremio

Kick-off: 2026-09-07

Gremio hold decisive squad and recent-form advantage. Vitoria are ravaged by injuries (11 confirmed absences including key defenders Anderson, Riccieli, and R. Ramos), sit 14th with just 1 win in 5, conceding 7 goals in that span. Gremio, despite a patchy season (15th, 24 games), won their last 2 matches (3-1 vs Chapecoense, 3-1 vs Internacional) and hold a 6-0 head-to-head winning record at this fixture. Squad value gap is 2.2:1 (€101.5m vs €45.3m). The API model (45% draw, 45% away) underweights Gremio's form edge and Vitoria's injury crisis; back the away win as the primary play.

Key factors

• Vitoria's injury crisis: 11 confirmed absences including defenders Anderson, Riccieli, R. Ramos (knee), Camutanga (broken leg), and suspension for Caca — severe structural damage.
• Gremio's form contrast: 2 consecutive wins (3-1, 3-1) with 6 goals in last 2 matches vs Vitoria's 1W-4L run, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded.
• Head-to-head dominance: Gremio 6 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses vs Vitoria in recent history; last 3 at Vitoria's home all Gremio wins (2-0, 3-1, 2-0).
• Squad value and quality: Gremio €101.5m vs Vitoria €45.3m (2.2× gap); Vitoria 14th (−13 GD), Gremio 15th (−5 GD) but with better recent trajectory.
• Tactical vulnerability: Vitoria's possession-based approach (51.6% avg, 14.8 shots per game) has yielded only 3.2 on-target and low conversion; defensive absences expose this model.

Win probability

• Vitoria: 25%
• Draw: 28%
• Gremio: 47%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 43%
• Both teams to score: 46%

Recent form

Vitoria: LLLLW · Gremio: WWDLL

Standings

• Vitoria: 14th in Serie A, 29 pts
• Gremio: 15th in Serie A, 28 pts

Head-to-head

Vitoria 0 · Gremio 6 · 4 draws

• 2026-03-19: Gremio 2-0 Vitoria
• 2025-09-28: Gremio 3-1 Vitoria
• 2025-04-27: Vitoria 1-1 Gremio
• 2024-12-04: Vitoria 1-1 Gremio
• 2024-07-21: Gremio 2-0 Vitoria