VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln — AI prediction

Result

VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln

Kick-off: 2026-09-04

VfB Stuttgart arrived at the MHPArena in poor form, losing 1–5 to Bayern München in their season opener and now 18th in the table with -4 goal difference. 1. FC Köln, meanwhile, sit 6th after a sharp 3–2 away win at Hoffenheim, with 17 goals in five recent games and early-season momentum. Stuttgart face a mounting injury crisis (Diehl, Sauer, Seimen confirmed out; Arevalo, Assignon, Fuhrich, Jaquez, Nartey, Zagadou all questionable), while Köln's absences are lighter (Hubers out, Dallinga questionable). Head-to-head favours Stuttgart (6 wins, 2 losses), but recent form strongly favours Köln, who have won four of their last five and look sharp in attack. Home advantage is limited by Stuttgart's defensive fragility and injury toll.

Key factors

  • Stuttgart 0–1 season record, -4 GD, 18th place; Köln 1–0, +1 GD, 6th place after dominant start
  • Stuttgart suffered 1–5 loss to Bayern in last competitive fixture; Köln won 3–2 away at Hoffenheim
  • Stuttgart: 9 players confirmed or likely injured (Diehl, Sauer, Seimen out; 6 questionable inc. defenders Assignon, Zagadou); defensive depth severely compromised
  • Köln: 4 of last 5 results are wins (WWWDW), 17 goals in recent form, clinical finishing (6 shots on target in latest win)
  • Head-to-head: Stuttgart lead 6–2–2, but all three most recent meetings show Köln competitive (most recent: Stuttgart 3–1 Köln Feb 2026; prior: Köln 1–2, Stuttgart 0–2)
  • Market odds favour Stuttgart (1.51 home), but imply only ~66% home win probability—misaligned with form disparity and injury severity

Win probability

  • VfB Stuttgart: 53%
  • Draw: 19%
  • 1. FC Köln: 28%

Goals & scoring

  • Over 2.5 goals: 66%
  • Both teams to score: 60%

Recent form

VfB Stuttgart: LWLWD · 1. FC Köln: WWWDW

Standings

  • VfB Stuttgart: 18th in Bundesliga, 0 pts
  • 1. FC Köln: 6th in Bundesliga, 3 pts

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart 6 · 1. FC Köln 2 · 2 draws

  • 2026-02-14: VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln
  • 2025-09-28: 1. FC Köln 1-2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2024-02-24: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC Köln
  • 2023-09-30: 1. FC Köln 0-2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2023-02-18: VfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC Köln

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