Venezia vs Fiorentina — AI prediction

Result

Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina

Kick-off: 2026-09-11

Venezia arrives home winless (0 pts, -5 GD) but has been strong in the H2H (2 wins, 1 draw in last four), including a 2–1 victory at home last May. Fiorentina is also pointless (0 pts, -8 GD) and has conceded 9 in three league games, yet in recent H2H fixtures away to Venezia they drew 0–0 in 2024. Both sides are injury-hit and struggling form-wise; Venezia's shot output (15.4 per 5 games) and possession (60.2%) exceed Fiorentina's (16.0 shots, 46% possession), but Fiorentina's defence is more porous. The api_prediction model favours Venezia at home (45% win probability) and recommends Double Chance or draw. Odds imply ~43.5% away, ~30.8% home, ~25.7% draw; Venezia at 2.9 reflects underpricing given H2H form and home venue.

Key factors

• Venezia 0 pts, Fiorentina 0 pts: both winless, but Venezia has home field and superior recent H2H (2–1 last May)
• Injuries: Venezia missing key defenders (Bella-Kotchap, Sverko); Fiorentina without Parisi and Sottil (wing/attack). Both sides weakened
• Shot volume and possession: Venezia averaging 15.4 shots, 60% possession in last 5; Fiorentina 16 shots, 46% possession. Venezia more proactive at home
• Defensive fragility: Fiorentina -8 GD, 9 conceded in 3 games; Venezia -5 GD but 0 goals in last 3 league outings. Low-scoring likely
• api_prediction model backs Venezia at 45%, suggesting Double Chance (Venezia or draw) as safest play. Bookmaker odds undervalue home side
• H2H context: Venezia won 1–0 and 2–1 at home in last two meetings; Fiorentina drew 0–0 away in 2024

Win probability

• Venezia: 38%
• Draw: 31%
• Fiorentina: 32%

Recent form

Venezia: LLLLW · Fiorentina: LLLW

Standings

• Venezia: 18th in Serie A, 0 pts
• Fiorentina: 20th in Serie A, 0 pts

Head-to-head

Venezia 2 · Fiorentina 1 · 1 draws

• 2025-05-12: Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina
• 2024-08-25: Fiorentina 0-0 Venezia
• 2022-04-16: Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia
• 2021-10-18: Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina