Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-25

Vasco da Gama are clear favourites despite recent poor form: they lead the squad value battle (€104.25M vs Mirassol's €33.08M) and hold home advantage. However, the form picture is weak—Vasco's last five reads DLLWL with just 1 win in 19 league games, and they sit 17th in the table on 20 points with a -8 goal difference. Mirassol, though lower-ranked, have better recent momentum (WLLWW last five, 5 goals in their last 5 games) and crucially lead the head-to-head 3-0 across their last three meetings, including a 2-1 win at home in January 2026. Both sides are missing injury-key players (Vasco: Mateus Carvalho; Mirassol: Negueba), which levels the disruption. Vasco's home advantage and squad depth should prevail, but Mirassol's away form and psychological edge make this closer than the odds suggest.

Key factors

• Vasco squad value €104.25M vs Mirassol €33.08M—decisive strength advantage
• Vasco 17th (20 pts, -8 GD), 1 win in last 19 games; Mirassol 18th (19 pts, -5 GD) but 2 wins in last 5
• Head-to-head: Mirassol 3-0 in recent three meetings; beat Vasco 2-1 at home (Jan 2026), 0-2 away (Dec 2025), 3-2 home (Aug 2025)
• Vasco last 5: 5 goals for, 7 against (xG 1.38); Mirassol last 5: 5 goals for, 4 against (xG 0.90)
• Both missing key injury: Vasco Mateus Carvalho (knee), Mirassol Negueba (knee)
• Home advantage real but form-weakened; Mirassol historically comfortable in this fixture

Win probability

• Vasco DA Gama: 48%
• Draw: 27%
• Mirassol: 25%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 50%
• Both teams to score: 51%

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama: DLLWL · Mirassol: WLLWW

Standings

• Vasco DA Gama: 17th in Serie A, 20 pts
• Mirassol: 18th in Serie A, 19 pts

Head-to-head

Vasco DA Gama 0 · Mirassol 3 · 0 draws

• 2026-01-29: Mirassol 2-1 Vasco DA Gama
• 2025-12-02: Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Mirassol
• 2025-08-02: Mirassol 3-2 Vasco DA Gama