USA vs Belgium — AI prediction

Result

USA 1-4 Belgium

Kick-off: 2026-07-07

Belgium look the stronger side despite USA being nominal hosts. Belgium's WWDDW form, 14 goals for/4 against and higher xG (2.15 vs 1.39 recent) plus a 5-2 win over this same USA in March give them the edge. USA have leaked goals (6 conceded, LWWL patches) but attack well through Balogun. Expect goals both ends and an open game; the bookmaker model also leans Belgium/draw. I make Belgium a slight favourite in a high-scoring tie.

Key factors

• Belgium last5 WWDDW, GF 14 / GA 4; recent xG 2.15 vs USA 1.39
• H2H: Belgium won both recent meetings incl. 5-2 in March 2026
• USA conceded in leaky spells (2-3 vs Turkiye, 1-2 vs Germany) but scored freely (11 GF)
• API model: draw 45% / Belgium 45% / USA 10%, advice draw-or-Belgium
• Neutral venue: home advantage nominal
• Both sides scoring consistently supports BTTS and Over 2.5

Win probability

• USA: 34%
• Draw: 28%
• Belgium: 38%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 64%

Recent form

USA: WLWWL · Belgium: WWDDW

Standings

• USA: 1st in Group D, 6 pts
• Belgium: 1st in Group G, 5 pts

Head-to-head

USA 0 · Belgium 2 · 0 draws

• 2026-03-28: USA 2-5 Belgium
• 2014-07-01: Belgium 2-1 USA