Uruguay vs Spain — AI prediction

Result

Uruguay 0-1 Spain

Kick-off: 2026-06-27

Spain arrive in much sharper form, unbeaten across their last five (WDWDD) with 8 goals scored and only 2 conceded, including a 4-0 demolition of Saudi Arabia and a 3-1 win over Peru. Their underlying numbers are dominant: ~21.8 shots and ~6.3 on target per game, 67% possession and ~2.2 xG, all powered by a strong XI featuring Rodri, Pedri and Merino in midfield, Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal up top, behind a Laporte-Cubarsi-Cucurella defence with no reported injuries. Uruguay, by contrast, are winless in five (DDDDL), with just 5 goals for and 9 against, and crucially are missing De Arrascaeta (muscle bruise) and Ronald Araujo (muscle bruise). Bielsa's side do generate volume (a 2.32 xG draw with Cape Verde, 27 shots vs Saudi Arabia) but their finishing has been poor (only 3.2 SoT recent average) and they leaked five in a 1-5 loss to USA. The lone H2H meeting saw Spain win 2-1. The market makes Spain clear favourites (1.74) and that looks justified; Uruguay at 6.40 with Nunez and Valverde can threaten, but Spain's control and chance creation point to an away edge with goals plausible but capped by Spain's defensive solidity (clean sheets vs Cape Verde and Egypt).

Key factors

• Spain unbeaten in last 5 (WDWDD), 8 GF / 2 GA vs Uruguay DDDDL, 5 GF / 9 GA
• Uruguay missing De Arrascaeta and Ronald Araujo (both muscle bruises)
• Spain dominate underlying metrics: ~21.8 shots, 67% possession, ~2.2 xG
• Uruguay's poor finishing (3.2 SoT avg) despite decent shot volume
• Neutral-tournament context nullifies Uruguay's nominal home edge
• Spain won the only recent H2H 2-1

Win probability

• Uruguay: 17%
• Draw: 27%
• Spain: 56%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 43%
• Both teams to score: 45%

Recent form

Uruguay: DDDDL · Spain: WDWDD

Head-to-head

Uruguay 0 · Spain 1 · 0 draws

• 2013-06-16: Spain 2-1 Uruguay