Türkiye vs USA — AI prediction

Result

Türkiye 3-2 USA

Kick-off: 2026-06-26

USA enter as marginal favourites and the on-pitch evidence broadly supports a slight edge. Their last-5 (WWLWL) shows attacking punch — 10 goals scored across the run including a 4-1 over Paraguay and a 3-2 over Senegal — but real defensive fragility, conceding 7 in five and shipping goals even in wins. Folarin Balogun is the listed danger man with 2 goals in 2 appearances, supported by a strong scorer pool (Pepi, Wright, Pulisic). Türkiye's last-5 (LLWWW chronologically reads WWWLL with recent losses to Paraguay 0-1 and Australia 0-2) is more mixed: they hammered FYR Macedonia 4-0 but have just been shut out twice, scoring 7 and conceding 4 overall. The lone H2H meeting saw Türkiye win 2-1 at USA in June 2025, a reminder this is a tight match-up. With the venue treated as nominal at a neutral-venue tournament, the model leans to USA narrowly while acknowledging Türkiye's draw value. Both attacks have shown they can score and both defences leak, so BTTS and a moderate goal total are favoured. Note: home key players, injuries and lineups are not provided, limiting confidence.

Key factors

• USA scored 10 in last 5 but conceded 7 — potent yet leaky
• Türkiye lost their two most recent matches 0-1 and 0-2, scoring zero
• Balogun in form: 2 goals in 2 apps, plus deep scorer pool (Pepi, Wright, Pulisic)
• Only H2H meeting: Türkiye won 2-1 vs USA (June 2025)
• Neutral-venue tournament — home advantage neutralised
• No lineups/injuries available — increases uncertainty

Win probability

• Türkiye: 26%
• Draw: 26%
• USA: 48%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 55%
• Both teams to score: 59%

Recent form

Türkiye: LLWWW · USA: WWLWL

Head-to-head

Türkiye 1 · USA 0 · 0 draws

• 2025-06-07: USA 1-2 Türkiye