Result

Toulouse 0-1 Lille

Kick-off: 2026-09-03

Lille hold a commanding edge over Toulouse: 7 away wins to just 2 home victories in their head-to-head, including a decisive 4–0 away win this April. On the pitch, Toulouse sit 16th with just 1 point from 2 league games (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2–4 goal difference), while Lille are 3rd with 4 points (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 4–2 GD). Toulouse have conceded 4 in their last league match (0–2 vs Lyon) and have managed only 2 goals in 2 games; Lille drew 2–2 away at PSG mid-week but won 2–0 at Angers the week before, with 4 shots on target in 2 games. The API model heavily favours Lille (71.8% overall, 65% on goals expected, 80% on H2H), and while both sides carry minor injuries, Lille's form, attacking threat (O. Giroud in 2 appearances, 1 goal + 2 assists), and defensive solidity decisively outclass a struggling Toulouse side.

Key factors

Toulouse 16th, 1 point from 2 games (0W–1D–1L, GD –2); Lille 3rd, 4 points (1W–1D–0L, GD +2)

H2H: Lille 7 away wins to Toulouse 2 home wins in recent fixture history; most recent 4–0 away (April 2026)

Toulouse: 2 goals scored in 2 league games, failed to score once, 0–2 loss to Lyon (17 shots, 2 SOT, xG 2.77 — poor conversion); 0 clean sheets

Lille: 4 goals in 2 games, 1 clean sheet, 4 SOT in 2 recent outings (PSG 2–2, Angers 2–0 win); O. Giroud 1 goal + 2 assists in 2 apps

Injuries: Toulouse missing A. Francis (muscle), N. Sigur (transfer), A. Donnum (questionable); Lille missing H. Igamane (knee), T. Nianzou (questionable). Neither side critically weakened.

API bookmaker model: Lille 71.8% overall (80% H2H, 65% goals, 67% attack/defence, 80% form); home-side signal at 28.2%

Possession/control: Toulouse 48–49% in last 2; Lille 35–43% in last 2, but superior efficiency (6 SOT vs 2, cleaner results)

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Toulouse vs Lille — AI prediction

Result

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