Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-21

Sturm Graz enter in strong home form (WWWD across their last four at the Merkur-Arena, 5-1 and 4-1 wins) though their defence has been leaky (14 for, 10 against, including a 2-6 loss to LNZ Cherkasy). Hearts are inconsistent (WLLWD) with modest attacking output (~0.88 xG recently) and lost to Livingston and Celtic. The market rightly favours the hosts, and the goal-laden profiles of both sides point to an open game. We lean Sturm to win with goals likely at both ends.

Key factors

• Sturm 3 wins in last 4 at home, scoring heavily (5-1, 4-1)
• Sturm defence shaky: 10 conceded in 5, 2-6 loss to LNZ Cherkasy
• Hearts patchy form WLLWD, low recent xG (~0.88)
• H2H and lineup data unavailable
• Market implies Sturm favourites (2.15) vs Hearts (3.90)

Win probability

• Sturm Graz: 48%
• Draw: 27%
• Heart Of Midlothian: 25%

Goals markets

• Both teams to score: 58%

Recent form

Sturm Graz: WWWDL · Heart Of Midlothian: WLLWD