St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

St. Louis City are favored at home (1.84), but form and injuries complicate the picture. Home have won just 2 of last 5 (DWWDD) with moderate shot creation (6 SOT/game); Away have drawn 2 of last 5 (DDLWL) but sit 3 points below home in the standings. Critically, both sides carry injury burden: St. Louis lose Celio Pompeu (knee) and C. Wallem (concussion); Colorado miss T. Ku-DiPietro, Z. Steffen (both shoulder) and J. Travis (ankle) — losing Steffen (likely goalkeeper) is severe. Rafael Navarro (8 goals, 15 apps) leads the away attack but hasn't fired in recent draws. Home's recent attacking output (3-0 vs Austin, 3-2 vs SKC) suggests they can exploit a weakened away defence, particularly with Steffen absent. Slight lean to home win and Under 2.5 goals given the injury context and defensive instability in both camps.

Key factors

• St. Louis City 2 of last 5 wins (DWWDD); Colorado 1 of last 5 wins (DDLWL) but in mid-table form.
• Colorado goalkeeper Z. Steffen confirmed missing (shoulder injury) — major blow to away defensive reliability.
• St. Louis missing Celio Pompeu (knee) and C. Wallem (concussion); Colorado also miss T. Ku-DiPietro and J. Travis.
• Rafael Navarro (8 goals, 3 assists in 15 apps) is away's chief threat but has 0 goals in last 2 matches (both draws).
• Head-to-head: Colorado lead 3-2 in recent wins, but St. Louis won 1-0 most recently (May 2026) and 2-0 in July 2023 at home.
• St. Louis average 6 SOT/game last 5; Colorado average 4.5 SOT/game last 2 (limited data, but suggests lower offensive threat.
• Home advantage at CITYPARK standard; both teams in rough mid-season patch with multiple key absentees.
• Odds imply ~54% home win probability; away win at 27%, draw at 21% — home slight value given recent home results but injuries offset.

Win probability

• St. Louis City: 53%
• Draw: 22%
• Colorado Rapids: 25%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 51%

Recent form

St. Louis City: DWWDD · Colorado Rapids: DDLWL

Standings

• St. Louis City: 10th in Western Conference, 19 pts
• Colorado Rapids: 13th in Western Conference, 16 pts

Head-to-head

St. Louis City 2 · Colorado Rapids 3 · 2 draws

• 2026-05-10: Colorado Rapids 0-1 St. Louis City
• 2025-05-25: Colorado Rapids 1-0 St. Louis City
• 2025-02-23: St. Louis City 0-0 Colorado Rapids
• 2024-07-08: Colorado Rapids 4-1 St. Louis City
• 2024-06-20: St. Louis City 0-3 Colorado Rapids