Spain vs Belgium — AI prediction

Result

Spain 2-1 Belgium

Kick-off: 2026-07-10

Spain enter as clear favourites on the back of WWWDW form, an outstanding defence (11 scored, just 1 conceded) with clean sheets in each of their last four internationals, and Oyarzabal's 4 goals leading the line. Belgium score freely (14 for) but ship goals (4 against) and drew twice, plus they lose keeper Onana to a cruciate rupture — a real weakness against Spain's high-volume attack (~19.5 shots, 2.02 xG). Spain's defensive numbers and control point to a narrow, controlled win rather than a shootout.

Key factors

• Spain's defence elite: only 1 conceded, 4 clean sheets in last 5, 100% defence rating in API model
• Belgium concede more (4 against) and lack of Onana in goal (ACL) hurts them
• Oyarzabal in form with 4 goals in 4 apps
• Belgium's attack potent (14 GF, 2.15 xG) so BTTS remains live despite Spain's solidity
• API model backs Spain (45%) with double-chance Spain-or-draw advice
• Neutral venue — home advantage nominal

Win probability

• Spain: 58%
• Draw: 26%
• Belgium: 16%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 55%
• Both teams to score: 52%

Recent form

Spain: WWWDW · Belgium: WWDDW

Standings

• Spain: 1st in Group H, 7 pts
• Belgium: 1st in Group G, 5 pts