Shelbourne vs Kalju Nomme — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-23
Shelbourne's last-5 reads DDWDL with 7 goals scored but 9 conceded — a leaky defence that has kept zero clean sheets in that run, including a 0-3 home loss to Bohemians. Kalju Nomme arrive with a tidier DDWWD record, 7 goals scored against only 4 conceded, and just advanced past Linfield on aggregate. The odds make Shelbourne heavy favourites on home soil, but their defensive fragility and Kalju's recent away resilience (0-0 at Kuressaare, 2-2 at Linfield) suggest the visitors can threaten — BTTS at 2.38 looks the standout value. The market's total goals line sits around 2.5, which is fairly priced given both sides' tendency to concede.
Key factors
- Shelbourne last-5: DDWDL, 7 scored / 9 conceded — zero clean sheets in recent run, including 0-3 home loss
- Kalju Nomme last-5: DDWWD, 7 scored / 4 conceded — stronger defensive record and unbeaten in 4
- Kalju eliminated Linfield in Conference League qualifying (won 3-3 on agg), showing European competitiveness
- No lineup data or key player stats available for either side — limits confidence in player-level analysis
- No head-to-head data available
- API prediction returns 33/33/33 (no data) — bookmaker odds (Shels 1.34, draw 4.75, Kalju 10.0) are the primary market reference
- Home advantage applies at Tolka Park but Shelbourne's recent form (2W 2D 1L) is unconvincing
- BTTS 'yes' at 2.38 offers value: Shelbourne have conceded in all 5 recent games; Kalju scored in 4 of 5
- Corners line at 10 is reasonable; Shelbourne averaged 6.33 corners in recent games — under looks slight value
- Away team total goals under 1.0 priced at 1.15 (very short) — market pricing Kalju as very unlikely scorers, but their form says otherwise
Win probability
- Shelbourne: 65%
- Draw: 23%
- Kalju Nomme: 12%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 50%
- Both teams to score: 44%
Recent form
Shelbourne: DDWDL · Kalju Nomme: DDWWD