Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

Shandong Luneng are slight favourites at home, sitting 6th in the league (24 pts) with a +1 goal difference, versus Henan Jianye in 12th (18 pts, 0 GD). Shandong's recent form is mixed (DLWLW last-5: 12 goals for, 11 against), but their attacking threat—Cryzan (11 goals, 14 apps) and Zeca (8 goals, 18 apps)—outmatches Henan's Gustavo and Bruno Nazário (7 each). Henan are fragile away from home and have won just 2 of 10 H2H meetings. The API model backs Shandong (55% total, 62% H2H) despite defensive concerns (44% vs Henan's 56%), and the odds (1.93 home) reflect modest advantage; BTTS is likely given both sides' recent leaking.

Key factors

• Shandong 6th (24 pts) vs Henan 12th (18 pts); 6-point gap and better offensive talent (Cryzan 11g)
• H2H dominance: Shandong 5-2-3 record; Henan 0-1 away vs Shandong in last meet (Apr 2026)
• Recent form mixed for both (DLWLW vs DWLL), but Shandong's home win vs Yunnan (4-3) shows offensive capacity
• No confirmed injuries for either side; full squads available
• Henan defensive fragility: conceded 6 in last 3, 23 GA all season; Shandong's attack averaging 6.25 SoT in last 4
• Both sides prone to conceding (Shandong 11 in last-5, Henan 6 in last-5 away); BTTS/Over 2.5 likely

Win probability

• Shandong Luneng: 50%
• Draw: 29%
• Henan Jianye: 20%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 65%
• Both teams to score: 62%

Recent form

Shandong Luneng: DLWLW · Henan Jianye: DWLL

Standings

• Shandong Luneng: 6th in Chinese Super League, 24 pts
• Henan Jianye: 12th in Chinese Super League, 18 pts

Head-to-head

Shandong Luneng 5 · Henan Jianye 2 · 3 draws

• 2026-04-11: Henan Jianye 0-1 Shandong Luneng
• 2025-06-30: Henan Jianye 2-2 Shandong Luneng
• 2025-02-23: Shandong Luneng 0-0 Henan Jianye
• 2024-08-21: Shandong Luneng 3-1 Henan Jianye
• 2024-07-28: Henan Jianye 1-0 Shandong Luneng