Senegal vs Iraq — AI prediction

Result

Senegal 5-0 Iraq

Kick-off: 2026-06-26

Senegal are heavy favourites and the on-pitch evidence supports a comfortable edge. Their last 5 read LDLWW with 8 goals for and 7 against, and against weaker opposition they have produced — a 3-1 home win over Gambia and a 2-0 win over Peru (12 shots, 6 on target, 60% possession). Even in losses to France (1-3) and USA (2-3), they created chances. The published XI is strong despite the absence of keeper É. Mendy (twisted knee), with Mory Diaw deputising behind a back four of Diatta, Seck, Niakhaté and Jakobs; the attacking core of Sadio Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, Habib Diarra and Lamine Camara carries real quality. Iraq, by contrast, are in poor attacking form: LLDWW but only 5 goals scored against 8 conceded, and their two most recent games were a 1-4 home thrashing by Norway and a 0-2 home loss to Venezuela, with possession languishing at 34-39% and just 1.5 shots on target per game. Graham Arnold sets up defensively in a 4-1-4-1 with Ali Al-Hamadi alone up top, suggesting a containment approach. The market (Senegal ~1.24, Iraq ~15.0) reflects a near-certain home win. Given Senegal's superior firepower and Iraq's leaky, low-possession recent showings, a Senegal win by a clear margin is the most likely outcome, though Iraq's compact shape and ability to nick goals (scored vs Spain, Norway) means BTTS is live and a runaway scoreline is not guaranteed.

Key factors

  • Senegal carry far more attacking quality — Mané, Sarr, Diarra, Camara all in the XI; Iraq managed just 1.5 SoT per game recently.
  • Iraq's recent defensive collapse: 1-4 vs Norway and 0-2 vs Venezuela at home, conceding 8 in their last 5.
  • É. Mendy out (twisted knee) for Senegal — modest downgrade in goal with Mory Diaw starting.
  • Iraq set up defensively (4-1-4-1, lone striker), which can keep the score down but offers little going forward.
  • Neutral-venue tournament: home/away treated as nominal, so the edge is purely on form/quality.
  • Iraq have scored in tough games (vs Spain, Norway), keeping BTTS plausible despite the gap.

Win probability

  • Senegal: 80%
  • Draw: 14%
  • Iraq: 6%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 43%

Recent form

Senegal: LDLWW · Iraq: LLDWW

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