Santos vs UCV — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-29

Santos dominate this Copa Sudamericana knockout tie on all measurable fronts. They beat UCV 4–1 just seven days ago, possess a squad market value €94m higher (€100m vs €6m), and show far superior recent form: 10 goals in last 5 matches vs UCV's 5, plus a 1–0 head-to-head record. UCV's defence has conceded 13 in 5 recent outings; Santos' Gabriel Barbosa and Bontempo (3 goals each in 5–7 appearances) are in sharp form. Home advantage at Estadio Urbano Caldeira and the one-week repetition of the earlier 4–1 scoreline strongly favour a Santos win, likely with multiple goals.

Key factors

• Santos beat UCV 4–1 on 2026-07-22 (7 days before this tie); one-week repeat fixture
• Squad market value: Santos €100m vs UCV €6m (16.6x gap)
• Santos last-5 record: 10 goals for, 5 against; UCV: 5 for, 13 against
• Recent form: Santos DWLW (last 4); UCV LLWLL (deeply inconsistent)
• Santos: 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 7-game season; UCV form severely degraded (0 wins in last 5)
• Key scorers active: Gabriel Barbosa 3 goals in 5 apps, Gabriel Bontempo 3 goals in 7 apps
• UCV defensive vulnerability: 13 conceded in 5 recent; 39% possession, 4 SOT avg in recent matches
• Home advantage at Estadio Urbano Caldeira for Santos
• Copa Sudamericana knockout: single match; no aggregate

Win probability

• Santos: 82%
• Draw: 12%
• UCV: 6%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 68%
• Both teams to score: 40%

Recent form

Santos: DWLW · UCV: LLWLL

Standings

• Santos: 2nd in Group D, 7 pts

Head-to-head

Santos 1 · UCV 0 · 0 draws

• 2026-07-22: UCV 1-4 Santos