Santos vs Chapecoense-sc — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-25

Santos are clear favourites at home to bottom-placed Chapecoense. The hosts command a €86m squad-value advantage, sit 15th with 21 points, and show 3 wins in their last 4 (11 goals in 5 games). Chapecoense are in freefall—20th with 9 points, 2 losses in their last 3, and averaging just 2.5 shots on target per game. Head-to-head is balanced (5 home wins, 4 away), but recent form and strength disparity strongly back Santos. The bookmaker model rates home at 45% but odds (1.40) imply 71%, suggesting modest value in the draw or an away upset play, though on-pitch evidence favours a Santos win by 2+ goals.

Key factors

Squad market value: Santos €100.2m vs Chapecoense €17.4m—vast disparity
Santos last 5: WLWW, 11 goals in 5 games; Chapecoense last 5: LLWWL, 5 goals in 5, 2 losses in last 3
League position: Santos 15th (21 pts), Chapecoense 20th (9 pts)—23-point gap after 19 games
Recent head-to-head: Chapecoense beat Santos 4-2 (Jan 2026) away; Santos won 1-0 at home (July 2024)
Home advantage at Vila Belmiro applies; Chapecoense defence poor (GD -22), recent xG 0.69 per game
Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals, 12 appearances) is Santos' key attacking outlet; Chapecoense lack attacking depth
Bookmaker odds (1.40 home) imply 71% win probability; API model suggests 45%—gap signals tight match possible

Win probability

Santos: 57%
Draw: 28%
Chapecoense-sc: 14%

Goals & scoring

Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Both teams to score: 47%

Recent form

Santos: WLWW · Chapecoense-sc: LLWWL

Standings

Santos: 15th in Serie A, 21 pts
Chapecoense-sc: 20th in Serie A, 9 pts

Head-to-head

Santos 5 · Chapecoense-sc 4 · 1 draws

2026-01-28: Chapecoense-sc 4-2 Santos
2024-10-16: Chapecoense-sc 3-2 Santos
2024-07-02: Santos 1-0 Chapecoense-sc
2021-11-17: Santos 2-0 Chapecoense-sc
2021-08-01: Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Santos