San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC — AI prediction

Result

San Jose Earthquakes 0-4 Orlando City SC

Kick-off: 2026-07-23

San Jose sit 2nd in the Western Conference (10W-2D-3L, +19 GD, only 15 conceded, 5 clean sheets) and host an Orlando side that is 13th in the East with a catastrophic defensive record: 44 goals conceded, zero clean sheets in 15 games. P. Judd (11G) should feast against a backline that shipped 6 at Cincinnati most recently. Despite SJ's recent last-5 blip, the season-long quality gap is enormous and the home venue adds further weight to the home selection.

Key factors

San Jose: 10W-2D-3L, +19 GD, 34 scored, 15 conceded, 5 clean sheets — one of MLS best defensive records
Orlando: 4W-2D-9L, -21 GD, 44 goals conceded, ZERO clean sheets all season — worst in Eastern Conference
Orlando conceded 6 at FC Cincinnati in last away fixture; travelling to PayPal Park is ominous
P. Judd 11G/15 apps for SJ vs porous Orlando defence; M. Ojeda 11G but SJ have conceded just 15 all season
API model oddly flat at 35/35/30 for 1X2 — contradicted by Poisson read of 87% SJ vs 13% Orlando and massive GD gap
J. Gerbet out for Orlando (knee injury); SJ missing D. Jones and N. Tsakiris but season dominance unaffected
H2H: last meeting at PayPal Park in 2024 was Orlando 1-0, but season stats overwhelmingly favour SJ
BTTS supported by Orlando's 0 clean sheets and both strikers on 11 goals each

Win probability

San Jose Earthquakes: 63%
Draw: 20%
Orlando City SC: 17%

Goals & scoring

Both teams to score: 65%

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes: LWLLL · Orlando City SC: LWDWL

Standings

San Jose Earthquakes: 2nd in Western Conference, 32 pts
Orlando City SC: 13th in Eastern Conference, 14 pts

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 1 · Orlando City SC 3 · 3 draws

2024-05-19: San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Orlando City SC
2021-06-22: Orlando City SC 5-0 San Jose Earthquakes
2019-09-01: San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 Orlando City SC
2018-04-21: Orlando City SC 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes
2017-05-18: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Orlando City SC

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