San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

San Jose Earthquakes hold a stronger league position (2nd vs 9th) and boast a superior season record (10W-2D-3L, 34 goals for vs Galaxy's 5W-5D-6L, 22 goals). Home form is compelling: 10 wins in 15 games with 34 goals and only 15 conceded. Los Angeles Galaxy arrive depleted—missing Rafa Puig (knee), Joao Klauss (foot), Carlos Garces (red card), and Ethan Thommy (injury)—while San Jose's injuries are significant but less critical to attacking output. H2H favours Galaxy historically (7 wins to 1), but recent form trends heavily toward San Jose. The API model correctly leans home (35% win, though conservatively) given form divergence and Galaxy's injury crisis.

Key factors

• San Jose in 2nd place (32 pts, 15 games), Galaxy 9th (20 pts, 16 games)—15-point gap reflects season-long gulf
• San Jose: 10 wins in 15 games at home, 34 GF–15 GA; Galaxy: struggling season, 5W–5D–6L overall, 22 GF–25 GA
• Galaxy missing four key players: R. Puig (knee), Joao Klauss (foot), C. Garces (red card), E. Thommy (injury)
• P. Judd (San Jose) 11 goals in 15 appearances is a potent home threat; Galaxy have no key-player data published
• Recent H2H: 1-1 draw (Jun 2025), 1-0 San Jose (May 2025); overall H2H heavily favours Galaxy (7-1-2) but form now contradicts history
• API model shows form 42% home / 58% away, but Poisson and H2H are outliers; total predictive weight 47.5% home / 52.7% away reflects uncertainty
• Galaxy's last 5: D-L-W-L-D (2 GF in 5 games); San Jose L-L-W-L-L in last 5 is volatile but season record dominates

Win probability

• San Jose Earthquakes: 56%
• Draw: 26%
• Los Angeles Galaxy: 18%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 63%
• Both teams to score: 53%

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes: LLWLL · Los Angeles Galaxy: DLWLD

Standings

• San Jose Earthquakes: 2nd in Western Conference, 32 pts
• Los Angeles Galaxy: 9th in Western Conference, 20 pts

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 1 · Los Angeles Galaxy 7 · 2 draws

• 2025-06-29: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
• 2025-05-29: Los Angeles Galaxy 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes
• 2024-08-01: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
• 2024-06-30: San Jose Earthquakes 0-3 Los Angeles Galaxy
• 2024-04-22: Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes