San Diego vs FC Dallas — AI prediction
Result
San Diego 1-0 FC Dallas
Kick-off: 2026-07-26
FC Dallas arrive in superior recent form (4W-1L in last 5 vs San Diego's mixed DLDWD), sitting 5th in the West with 25 pts to San Diego's 12th-place 17 pts. Dallas's P. Musa (12 goals in 13 apps) leads their attack, while San Diego's M. Ingvartsen (11 goals in 15 apps) offers less consistency. However, the API model (53.2% home vs 47.0% away) flags San Diego's home-ground advantage despite their weaker league position. Head-to-head heavily favours San Diego (2W-0L at home, 1 recent 3-3 draw), but form and attacking depth point to away value. Both sides carry injury concerns (San Diego miss Pellegrino and Sisniega; Dallas miss Ramiro, Geovane Jesus questionable), narrowing the gap slightly.
Key factors
- FC Dallas in strong recent form: 4W-1L last 5, +5 GD vs San Diego's DLDWD, +3 GD
- P. Musa (12g in 13 apps) provides consistent attacking threat; M. Ingvartsen (11g in 15 apps) less reliable
- San Diego's home record vs Dallas favours home side (2W in H2H); recent meeting ended 3-3 (May 2026)
- Both teams missing key players: San Diego without Pellegrino, Sisniega; Dallas without Ramiro, Geovane Jesus questionable
- FC Dallas 5th (25 pts), San Diego 12th (17 pts) — 8-point gap reflects form disparity
- API prediction shows conflicting signals: 53.2% home expected, but form/attack metrics favour away
- Over 3.5 goals: last 5 meetings average 3.4 goals; recent H2H shows high-scoring pattern (5-0, 3-3, 2-3)
Win probability
- San Diego: 38%
- Draw: 25%
- FC Dallas: 38%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 61%
Recent form
San Diego: DLDWD · FC Dallas: WWLWW
Standings
- San Diego: 12th in Western Conference, 17 pts
- FC Dallas: 5th in Western Conference, 25 pts
Head-to-head
San Diego 2 · FC Dallas 0 · 1 draws
- 2026-03-15: FC Dallas 3-3 San Diego
- 2025-06-29: FC Dallas 2-3 San Diego
- 2025-05-04: San Diego 5-0 FC Dallas