Racing Santander vs Alaves — AI prediction

Result

Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves

Kick-off: 2026-09-12

Alaves arrive in strong form (3 wins, 1 draw; 2nd in La Liga) with a +7 goal difference and 11 goals in 4 games. Racing Santander are struggling in 12th (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses; -1 GD, 0 clean sheets). Head-to-head strongly favours Alaves (2 wins, 0 losses vs Racing in recent meetings). The API model reflects this dominance (68.8% for Alaves, Form 71%, Defence 73%). Racing's injuries (Eriksson, Martin) compound their weakness; Alaves' missing Garces (suspended) and Rodriguez (ankle) are more containable. Alaves at 2.75 is underpriced given their form and standing.

Key factors

• Alaves: 3 wins in last 4, 10 goals for, 3 conceded; Racing: 1 win in 4, 7 goals for, 8 conceded.
• Standings: Alaves 2nd (10 pts), Racing 12th (4 pts) after 4 matches.
• H2H: Alaves 2 wins (including 2-1 in 2023), Racing 0 wins in recent meetings; 1-1 most recent (Aug 7).
• Racing injuries: S. Eriksson (shoulder), A. Martin (knee). Alaves: F. Garces (suspended), M. Rodriguez (ankle).
• API model: 68.8% Alaves overall; Form 71%, Attack 59%, Defence 73% in Alaves' favour.
• Shots on target: Racing avg 4.0, Alaves avg 5.0 per game. xG: Racing 1.35, Alaves 1.48.
• Racing failed to score in 1 of 4 games; Alaves scored in all 4.

Win probability

• Racing Santander: 33%
• Draw: 26%
• Alaves: 41%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 59%

Recent form

Racing Santander: LWLDD · Alaves: WWDWD

Standings

• Racing Santander: 12th in La Liga, 4 pts
• Alaves: 2nd in La Liga, 10 pts

Head-to-head

Racing Santander 0 · Alaves 2 · 3 draws

• 2026-08-07: Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves
• 2024-07-17: Racing Santander 0-0 Alaves
• 2023-07-22: Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves
• 2023-01-21: Alaves 3-0 Racing Santander
• 2022-11-01: Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves