Racing Club vs Gimnasia L.P. — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-24

Racing Club favours the form and squad value edge (€71.4M vs €26.5M), leading 5-4 in head-to-head wins and unbeaten in their last two at home (4-1, 2-0). Yet the API model strongly favours Gimnasia L.P. (68.3% to 31.7%), citing superior recent form (67% vs 33%), attack (56% vs 44%), and especially the H2H read (93% vs 7%). Gimnasia's last-5 record is W-D-L-W-W with M. Torres contributing 8 goals in 18 apps. Racing's recent results are strong (W-W-D-L-W) but confounded by a May slump; the API's form/attack/defence splits all favour the away side. Home advantage is modest in this Argentine league context. A competitive match, but the bookmaker model's conviction and Gimnasia's offensive metrics suggest value in the away side or a draw.

Key factors

Squad market value: Racing €71.4M >> Gimnasia €26.5M (home advantage on paper)
Recent form API split: Gimnasia 67% vs Racing 33%; H2H model gives away 93% vs home 7%
Last-5 records: Racing W-W-D-L-W (10 GF, 5 GA); Gimnasia W-D-L-W-W (7 GF, 4 GA)
Head-to-head: Racing 4 wins, Gimnasia 4 wins, 2 draws; Gimnasia won 2-1 on 2026-01-24
M. Torres (Gimnasia): 8 goals, 1 assist in 18 apps; key attacking threat
No injuries reported for either side; lineups not yet available
Season standing: Racing 8th in Group B (21 pts, 16 played); Gimnasia 6th in Group B (26 pts, 16 played)

Win probability

Racing Club: 39%
Draw: 32%
Gimnasia L.P.: 30%

Goals & scoring

Over 2.5 goals: 44%
Both teams to score: 50%

Recent form

Racing Club: WWDLW · Gimnasia L.P.: WDLWW

Standings

Racing Club: 8th in Apertura - Group B, 21 pts
Gimnasia L.P.: 6th in Apertura - Group B, 26 pts

Head-to-head

Racing Club 4 · Gimnasia L.P. 4 · 2 draws

2026-01-24: Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 Racing Club
2024-08-10: Racing Club 0-1 Gimnasia L.P.
2023-04-08: Gimnasia L.P. 3-1 Racing Club
2022-06-20: Gimnasia L.P. 3-1 Racing Club
2022-02-13: Racing Club 0-0 Gimnasia L.P.