Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia — AI prediction

Result

Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia

Kick-off: 2026-07-23

Qarabag hold a strong head-to-head record (2-0 vs CSKA Sofia) and are unbeaten in recent outings (2W in season form with 2 consecutive clean sheets). CSKA Sofia arrive in reasonable form (4W-1D last 5) but have conceded 5 goals in 2 recent games, signalling defensive vulnerability. The API model flags Qarabag at 45% win probability with draw also at 45%, and recommends Double Chance (Qarabag or draw). Home odds at 1.56 imply ~64% probability, above the model's 45%, but H2H dominance (88% in API comparison) and home advantage justify a Qarabag lean. CSKA Sofia's attacking output (11 goals in last 5) provides BTTS appeal despite Qarabag's clean sheets.

Key factors

• Qarabag unbeaten in last 2 season games: 2 consecutive clean sheets (6-0 aggregate vs Vestri).
• CSKA Sofia conceded 5 goals across 2 recent matches (2-1 vs Derry City, 0-0 vs Slavia Sofia); defensive fragility evident.
• Head-to-head: Qarabag 2-0 up in last two meetings (both 1-0 wins in 2023 and 2021).
• API prediction: Qarabag 45% win, draw 45%, away 10%. H2H metric 88% favours home.
• Home venue (Tofiq Bahramov Stadium) provides standard advantage; not neutral.
• CSKA Sofia last-5 record strong (4W-1D) but inflated by wins vs lower opposition; recent draw vs Slavia Sofia suggests levelling.
• No injuries flagged for either side.

Win probability

• Qarabag: 54%
• Draw: 31%
• CSKA Sofia: 15%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 47%

Recent form

Qarabag: WWLL · CSKA Sofia: DWWWW

Head-to-head

Qarabag 2 · CSKA Sofia 0 · 0 draws

• 2023-07-04: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag
• 2021-07-07: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag