Portugal vs Croatia — AI prediction

Result

Portugal 2-1 Croatia

Kick-off: 2026-07-02

Portugal enter unbeaten in their last five (DWDWW, 10 scored, 3 conceded) with a 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan and solid xG, while Croatia have been streaky (WWLWL) and leaky, shipping 8 goals including a 4-2 loss to England and 0-2 to Belgium. Portugal's superior defence and recent attacking output, plus a 4-1-2 H2H edge, justify backing them. The bookmaker model agrees (Portugal 45%, away just 10%) but its draw weighting looks high. We lean Portugal to win at value, with their fragile defence still allowing BTTS appeal.

Key factors

• Portugal unbeaten last 5 (DWDWW), only 3 conceded; Croatia conceded 8 in last 5
• Portugal recent xG ~1.4 vs Croatia ~0.8; SOT 5.2 vs 3.6
• Croatia lost twice recently (4-2 England, 0-2 Belgium), defence shaky
• H2H favours Portugal 4 wins to 1, including recent 2-1
• Neutral venue — home advantage nominal; both injury lists empty
• Croatia capable going forward (2 goals vs England) keeps BTTS live

Win probability

• Portugal: 55%
• Draw: 27%
• Croatia: 18%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 50%
• Both teams to score: 51%

Recent form

Portugal: DWDWW · Croatia: WWLWL

Standings

• Portugal: 2nd in Group K, 5 pts
• Croatia: 2nd in Group L, 6 pts

Head-to-head

Portugal 4 · Croatia 1 · 2 draws

• 2024-11-18: Croatia 1-1 Portugal
• 2024-09-05: Portugal 2-1 Croatia
• 2024-06-08: Portugal 1-2 Croatia
• 2020-11-17: Croatia 2-3 Portugal
• 2020-09-05: Portugal 4-1 Croatia