Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas — AI prediction
Result
Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas
Kick-off: 2026-07-23
FC Dallas arrive in Portland in significantly better shape — four wins from their last five with P. Musa firing 12 goals in 13 appearances — while Portland (5W-2D-8L) sit 11th in the West and are missing four confirmed starters including Fernandez, Guerra, Mosquera and Velde. Dallas's superior form, goal difference (+8 vs -2) and the bookmaker model all point the same direction. BTTS looks likely given Portland's single clean sheet all season and Dallas's propensity to concede while scoring freely.
Key factors
- FC Dallas: WWLWW last 5, 7W-4D-4L season, 5th in West; Portland: WLLDW last 5, 5W-2D-8L, 11th in West
- P. Musa (Dallas): 12 goals in 13 apps — elite output; K. Kelsy (Portland): 7 goals in 15 apps
- Portland missing 4 confirmed starters: O. Fernandez, G. Guerra, J. Mosquera, K. Velde; Z. McGraw questionable
- Dallas absentees: A.A. Julio Santos and B. Kamungo out, Geovane Jesus/O. Urhoghide questionable — less severe squad impact
- Portland: only 1 clean sheet in 15 league games, 29 goals conceded; Dallas concede more on the road but score freely (30 GF)
- H2H: Dallas hold 4-2-4 advantage overall; won 2-0 at Portland's expense in August 2025
- API prediction aligns with on-pitch evidence: Dallas 45% win, form 63% Dallas, Poisson 69% Dallas
- Market prices Portland as slight favourite (2.38 home vs 2.80 away) — value appears to lie with Dallas
- BTTS short-priced at 1.44 (implied ~69%) supported by Portland's defensive vulnerability (1 CS all season)
Win probability
- Portland Timbers: 36%
- Draw: 24%
- FC Dallas: 41%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 67%
Recent form
Portland Timbers: WLLDW · FC Dallas: WWLWW
Standings
- Portland Timbers: 11th in Western Conference, 17 pts
- FC Dallas: 5th in Western Conference, 25 pts
Head-to-head
Portland Timbers 2 · FC Dallas 4 · 4 draws
- 2025-09-28: Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas
- 2025-08-10: FC Dallas 2-0 Portland Timbers
- 2024-10-06: Portland Timbers 0-0 FC Dallas
- 2024-07-05: FC Dallas 3-2 Portland Timbers
- 2023-06-12: Portland Timbers 1-0 FC Dallas