Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders — AI prediction

Result

Philadelphia Union 1-0 Seattle Sounders

Kick-off: 2026-07-25

Philadelphia Union sit bottom of the Eastern Conference with just 1 win in 15 games and a -12 goal difference, while Seattle Sounders (6th, Western) are mid-table with 7 wins. Over the last 5 matches, Union have won just once (vs NYRBs), conceding 14 goals; Seattle are also struggling (1W, 4L) but hold a 5-3 h2h edge. Crucially, Seattle miss multiple key players—J. Morris, C. Roldan, A. Roldan, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, N. Petkovic and Kim Kee-Hee are all out—severely limiting their attacking and defensive depth. Despite the bookmaker model favouring Seattle (55% total), Union's home ground and Seattle's crippling absentee list tip the scales. A competitive, low-scoring match is most likely.

Key factors

  • Philadelphia Union 1W-4L-10 season; bottom Eastern Conference; -12 GD; only 18 goals in 15 games.
  • Seattle Sounders 7W-3D-4L season; 6th Western Conference; stronger underlying record but last 5 just 1W-4L.
  • Seattle missing 7 confirmed absentees (J. Morris, C. Roldan, A. Roldan, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, N. Petkovic, Kim Kee-Hee); Union only 2 questionable (E. Davis III, S. Korzeniowski).
  • H2H: Seattle 5 wins, Union 3 wins, 2 draws; recent result (May 2024) Seattle 3-2 win but Union at home.
  • Union last 5 avg 6.8 shots on target; Seattle last 5 avg 5.4 SOT; low xG for both (2.22 Union, 1.67 Seattle).
  • Bookmaker model signals 45% draw/45% away despite absentees; form data (Form 33% home, 67% away) skews Seattle but injuries overweight form advantage.
  • Over 2.5 @ 1.65 implied 60.6% probability; actual match profile (low shots, missing players) suggests under more likely.

Win probability

  • Philadelphia Union: 36%
  • Draw: 34%
  • Seattle Sounders: 30%

Goals & scoring

  • Over 2.5 goals: 49%
  • Both teams to score: 51%

Recent form

Philadelphia Union: WLDLL · Seattle Sounders: DLLLW

Standings

  • Philadelphia Union: 15th in Eastern Conference, 7 pts
  • Seattle Sounders: 6th in Western Conference, 24 pts

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 3 · Seattle Sounders 5 · 2 draws

  • 2024-05-01: Philadelphia Union 2-3 Seattle Sounders
  • 2019-05-18: Philadelphia Union 0-0 Seattle Sounders
  • 2018-09-20: Seattle Sounders 0-1 Philadelphia Union
  • 2017-10-01: Philadelphia Union 2-0 Seattle Sounders
  • 2016-04-17: Seattle Sounders 2-1 Philadelphia Union

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