Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls — AI prediction

Result

Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls

Kick-off: 2026-07-22

Philadelphia Union are bottom of the Eastern Conference (1W-10L, 7 pts from 15 games) and have taken just 1 point from their last 4 matches, conceding 13 goals in their last 5. New York Red Bulls arrive in far better recent shape (WDWWL, 9 goals scored in last 5) and sit comfortably mid-table. The api_prediction's form edge heavily favours NYRB (83% vs 17%), overriding the H2H advantage and home venue. NYRB's key injury concern is Marcucci (out), but Hall (9G in 15 apps) leads the attack; Philadelphia's multiple questionables further thin their already depleted squad.

Key factors

  • Philadelphia Union are 15th in the East with just 1 win all season (1W-4D-10L); their last 5 is LDLLD, conceding 13 goals.
  • NYRB recent form: WDWWL, scoring 9 goals in last 5; J. Hall has 9 goals in 15 appearances as main attacking threat.
  • NYRB Marcucci confirmed out (knee); Choupo-Moting, Cowell, Dos Santos, Forsberg all questionable — attacking depth a concern.
  • Philadelphia have 5 questionables including Vassilev and Sullivan, worsening an already thin squad.
  • H2H at Subaru Park: Philadelphia 6W-1L-3D overall but NYRB won last meeting at this venue; NYRB's current form edge outweighs historical home advantage given Union's historic season low.
  • Both teams concede freely (PHI: 30 GA, NYRB: 32 GA in 15 games) — BTTS well supported at short odds.
  • NYRB season: 6W-4D-5L, a clear class gap over Union this campaign.
  • Lineups not yet published; formation data unavailable.

Win probability

  • Philadelphia Union: 36%
  • Draw: 28%
  • New York Red Bulls: 36%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 63%

Recent form

Philadelphia Union: LDLLD · New York Red Bulls: WDWWL

Standings

  • Philadelphia Union: 15th in Eastern Conference, 7 pts
  • New York Red Bulls: 5th in Eastern Conference, 22 pts

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 6 · New York Red Bulls 1 · 3 draws

  • 2025-08-16: New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union
  • 2025-08-13: Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls
  • 2025-07-12: Philadelphia Union 2-0 New York Red Bulls
  • 2024-08-31: New York Red Bulls 0-2 Philadelphia Union
  • 2024-07-06: Philadelphia Union 0-0 New York Red Bulls

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