Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-30
This is a UEFA Europa League regular-phase fixture between Pafos (Cyprus, rank 15) and HNK Hajduk Split (Croatia, rank 23). Hajduk's recent form is markedly superior: 4 wins in their last 5 (LWWWW), scoring 9 goals and conceding just 2 across that stretch. Pafos, conversely, show 2 losses in their last 5 (LLDWW), having conceded 5 goals in just 5 matches. Pafos's UEFA club coefficient (24.125) exceeds Hajduk's (10.0), but in a Europa League regular phase fixture this early in the competition cycle, current form and goal differential dominate. Hajduk's attacking potency (9 goals in 5 recent games) and defensive solidity (2 conceded) tip the balance decisively away, despite home disadvantage.
Key factors
- Hajduk Split form: LWWWW (4-1 in last 5), 9 goals for, 2 against; Pafos: LLDWW (2-3), 6 for, 5 against.
- Pafos's UEFA coefficient (24.125) is higher, but Hajduk ranks 23rd vs Pafos 15th in domestic league strength—a modest edge neither way; recent performance is the dominant signal.
- Hajduk's last-5 goal differential (+7) vastly outpaces Pafos (+1); Hajduk have also posted a clean sheet in their most recent win.
- No injury data available for either side; lineups not yet published.
- Home venue (Alphameta Stadium) provides standard home advantage to Pafos, but insufficient to overcome Hajduk's superior recent form and attacking threat.
- API prediction favours Hajduk (draw 45%, away 45%, home 10%), corroborating the on-pitch evidence.
Win probability
- Pafos: 28%
- Draw: 35%
- HNK Hajduk Split: 37%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 58%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Recent form
Pafos: LLDWW · HNK Hajduk Split: LWWWW