Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-09-19

Osasuna (11th, 7 pts, -3 GD) host Rayo Vallecano (16th, 4 pts, -6 GD) at El Sadar in a fixture between two struggling sides. Osasuna have won only 2 of 5 and lost their last two (0–2 to Espanyol, 2–5 to Aláves); Rayo are worse—1 win in 5 with 3 losses and a -6 goal difference, conceding 14 in five games. Osasuna's home record (W1 D1 L1 in recent home games) and Budimir's 4 goals in 5 appearances provide marginal attacking threat, while Rayo's porous defence (0 clean sheets) and reliance on Camello (6 goals, 5 apps) suggest vulnerability. Home advantage and Osasuna's slightly better form edge the pick, but both sides are fragile; expect a low-scoring, tightly contested match.

Key factors

• Osasuna 11th place (7 pts, -3 GD); last 2 games both losses (0–2, 2–5).
• Rayo Vallecano 16th place (4 pts, -6 GD, 0 clean sheets in 5 games).
• Osasuna 2–1 win in 5, Rayo 1–3 loss in 5; Osasuna's home record W1 D1 L1 (recent).
• Budimir 4 goals in 5 apps for home; Camello 6 goals but isolated upfront with poor supporting play.
• Both sides under-shooting (Osasuna xG 1.66, Rayo 1.28 per game); defensive vulnerability suggests low-scoring if either team controls midfield.
• Home venue advantage modest but decisive in a match between basement-dwellers; no injuries disclosed.

Win probability

• Osasuna: 46%
• Draw: 27%
• Rayo Vallecano: 27%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 42%
• Both teams to score: 45%

Recent form

Osasuna: LLWWD · Rayo Vallecano: LWLDL

Standings

• Osasuna: 11th in La Liga, 7 pts
• Rayo Vallecano: 16th in La Liga, 4 pts