Norway vs England — AI prediction

Result

Norway 1-2 England

Kick-off: 2026-07-11

England edge this knockout tie on the stronger body of work: WWWDW form, only 5 conceded and a superior defensive profile (64% vs 36% in the model's read), with Kane on 5 goals. Norway (WWLWW, 9 conceded, but Haaland firing) are more porous and shipped four to France. The market backs England (1.90) and the bookmaker model splits draw/away at 45% each with only 10% for Norway — I lean England with both teams likely to score given Norway's leaky defence and Haaland's threat.

Key factors

• England better defensively: 5 goals conceded to Norway's 9; api defence split 64%-36% to England
• Norway conceded 4 vs France and 2 in three of last five — vulnerable at the back
• Kane (5 goals) and Haaland (5 goals) both in scoring form supports BTTS
• England higher volume: 16 shots, 6.2 corners per game recently
• Quansah suspended and Henderson injured weakens England midfield/defence slightly
• Neutral-venue tournament: home advantage nominal for Norway
• Poisson model strongly favours England (84% vs 16%)

Win probability

• Norway: 23%
• Draw: 27%
• England: 50%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 57%
• Both teams to score: 60%

Recent form

Norway: WWLWW · England: WWWDW

Standings

• Norway: 2nd in Group I, 6 pts
• England: 1st in Group L, 7 pts