Newcastle vs Liverpool — AI prediction

Result

Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool

Kick-off: 2026-08-23

Liverpool hold a decisive head-to-head edge (8 wins vs 1) and superior recent form in pre-season — 2 wins in last 5 (vs Newcastle's 1). Both squads carry significant injuries: Newcastle missing Joelinton and Livramento (confirmed), Liverpool without Bradley, Ekitike, Gomez, and Leoni. The market prices Liverpool at 1.85, implying ~54% probability; however, it is late August, both sides are early into their campaign cycles with minimal competitive rhythm, and Newcastle's home advantage and relative cohesion in familiar surroundings offer modest margin. Liverpool's away record against Newcastle (8-1-1) is too strong to ignore, but early-season uncertainty and injury disruption on both sides counsel a measured play rather than full conviction.

Key factors

  • Liverpool 8-1-1 up in H2H; 4 wins in last 6 meetings (Jan 2026: 4-1 Liverpool, Aug 2025: 2-3 Newcastle).
  • Newcastle pre-season (DLLWL): 6 goals for, 11 against; Liverpool (DLLWW): 9 for, 9 against.
  • Newcastle injuries: Joelinton (confirmed out), Livramento (hamstring, confirmed out), Burn & Miley questionable.
  • Liverpool injuries: Bradley, Ekitike, Gomez, Leoni all confirmed missing.
  • No completed Premier League season stats available; both teams at early August fixture, high uncertainty.
  • Bookmaker model gives Liverpool 66.5% implied via H2H, Goals and Total factors; suggests Liverpool but acknowledges home-ground risk.
  • Early campaign fixtures carry elevated variance; home advantage modest but real.

Win probability

  • Newcastle: 27%
  • Draw: 20%
  • Liverpool: 53%

Goals & scoring

  • Over 2.5 goals: 54%
  • Both teams to score: 58%

Recent form

Newcastle: DLLWL · Liverpool: DLLWW

Standings

  • Newcastle: 9th in Premier League, 0 pts
  • Liverpool: 6th in Premier League, 0 pts

Head-to-head

Newcastle 1 · Liverpool 8 · 1 draws

  • 2026-01-31: Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle
  • 2025-08-25: Newcastle 2-3 Liverpool
  • 2025-03-16: Liverpool 1-2 Newcastle
  • 2025-02-26: Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle
  • 2024-12-04: Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool

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