Newcastle vs Bournemouth — AI prediction
Result
Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Kick-off: 2026-09-05
Newcastle's strong early form (two wins in their last three, 4 goals in 2 league games) and home advantage at St. James' Park make them the marginal favourites, but both sides carry significant injury burdens. Newcastle are without key defender Dan Burn (ankle), midfielder Joelinton, and forward Wissa Osula, while Bournemouth miss Adli, Araujo, Kroupi, and Milosavljevic—four confirmed absentees. Bournemouth's recent form is shakier (1 pt from 2 PL games; 14th in the table), though they showed attacking intent vs Everton (17 shots, 2.16 xG). Head-to-head favours Bournemouth (3 wins, 6 draws vs 1 win in their last 10 meetings), which tempers Newcastle's edge. The api_prediction model rates Newcastle 57.2% (vs Bournemouth 42.8%), and backs a Newcastle-or-draw double chance; tactically, the injuries and Bournemouth's tournament-style resilience (DLLDW in last 5) suggest a cagey, low-scoring affair is plausible. Lean Newcastle for the 1x2 at modest confidence, but BTTS No and Under 3 Goals carry real appeal.
Key factors
- Newcastle: 2W from last 3 (Tottenham 2-0, West Brom 3-2), 4 goals in 2 PL games, 1 clean sheet; sitting 5th with 4 pts from 2 matches.
- Bournemouth: 0W-1D-1L in PL (14th, 1 pt); drew 1-1 vs Everton (17 shots, 2.16 xG), lost 1-2 to Man City.
- Newcastle injuries: D. Burn (ankle), Joelinton, W. Osula confirmed out; V. Livramento questionable (hamstring). Weakens defence and attack.
- Bournemouth injuries: A. Adli, J. Araujo (thigh), E. J. Kroupi (foot), V. Milosavljevic all out. Four confirmed absentees hurt depth.
- Head-to-head: Bournemouth 3W-6D-1L vs Newcastle in recent meetings; last PL: Bournemouth won 2-1 (Apr 2026); draw 2-2 (Jan 2026).
- API prediction model: Newcastle 57.2%, Bournemouth 42.8%; Form edge Newcastle (80% vs 20%), but H2H favours Bournemouth (62% vs 38%).
- Home advantage: St. James' Park, but no UEFA coefficient/market value data to confirm structural dominance.
- Goal expectancy: Newcastle 1.15 xG recent, Bournemouth 1.41 xG recent; both mid-table shooters, suggesting low-scoring.
- Table context: Newcastle 5th (4 pts, +2 GD), Bournemouth 14th (1 pt, -1 GD); early season volatility and injury list depth argue caution.
Win probability
- Newcastle: 45%
- Draw: 34%
- Bournemouth: 21%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 52%
Recent form
Newcastle: WWDDL · Bournemouth: DLLDW
Standings
- Newcastle: 5th in Premier League, 4 pts
- Bournemouth: 14th in Premier League, 1 pts
Head-to-head
Newcastle 1 · Bournemouth 3 · 6 draws
- 2026-04-18: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth
- 2026-01-10: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
- 2025-09-21: Bournemouth 0-0 Newcastle
- 2025-01-18: Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth
- 2024-08-25: Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle