New Zealand vs Belgium — AI prediction

Result

New Zealand 1-5 Belgium

Kick-off: 2026-06-27

Belgium are clear favourites against New Zealand. The Red Devils' last-5 (DDWWD) shows defensive solidity — just 2 goals conceded over the span and clean sheets against Iran (0-0, 70% possession, 23 shots), Croatia (2-0 away) and Tunisia (5-0). They average 15.6 shots and 1.33 xG with a deep, talented XI featuring Courtois, De Bruyne, Tielemans, Trossard and De Ketelaere. New Zealand by contrast have leaked heavily (11 conceded in their recent run), with losses to Haiti (0-4), England (0-1) and Egypt (1-3); their only standout was a 4-1 win over Chile back in March. Their last-5 LDLLW reflects a side that creates modestly (1.24 recent xG) but is structurally fragile at the back. The notable wrinkle: the away injuries list flags Doku (illness) and Debast (leg) as missing, plus Ngoy suspended — yet Doku appears in the published Belgium XI, a data inconsistency. Even without Doku, Belgium's depth (Trossard, De Bruyne, plus Lukaku off the bench per scorer odds) keeps them comfortably ahead. The market prices Belgium at 1.22, implying ~82%, which is fair given the gulf. Expect Belgium to control possession and win comfortably; New Zealand may grab one given how often they score (BTTS is live), but the result direction is one-sided. The match is at a neutral-venue tournament so home advantage for New Zealand is nominal.

Key factors

  • Belgium conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 with multiple clean sheets; New Zealand conceded 11 in recent matches
  • New Zealand heavy losses to Haiti 0-4, Egypt 1-3 and England 0-1 show defensive fragility
  • Belgium dominate underlying numbers: 15.6 shots, 56.8% possession, 1.33 xG
  • Belgium absentees Debast (leg) and Ngoy (red card) plus Doku doubt (illness) — but squad depth covers it
  • Neutral venue: New Zealand's home tag is nominal

Win probability

  • New Zealand: 7%
  • Draw: 13%
  • Belgium: 80%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 50%

Recent form

New Zealand: LDLLW · Belgium: DDWWD

Head-to-head

New Zealand 0 · Belgium 0 · 0 draws

Other match predictions

About

Match Oracle — AI football predictions and match analysis.