New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte — AI prediction

Result

New York Red Bulls 0-2 Charlotte

Kick-off: 2026-07-25

New York Red Bulls are slight home favourites against Charlotte in a mid-season MLS clash. NYRB's last-5 is LWDWW (10 GF, 8 GA), while Charlotte show DWWL over their recent four (6 GF, 4 GA). The key blow to NYRB is the absence of A. Marcucci (knee injury); Charlotte miss A. John (upper-body) and have A. Saint-Maximin questionable. Head-to-head slightly favours NYRB (4 wins vs 3), though Charlotte's 6-1 demolition at home on 2026-03-21 stands out. The bookmaker API model leans NYRB at 51.8%, but flags a weak defence (43% vs Charlotte's 57%), and recent shot output is modest for both sides. Home advantage and form edge support NYRB, but the 1x2 odds (2.18) fairly reflect the thin edge.

Key factors

• NYRB form: LWDWW (10 GF, 8 GA in last 5); Charlotte: DWWL (6 GF, 4 GA in last 4)
• A. Marcucci (NYRB, knee) confirmed out; A. John (Charlotte, upper-body) out; both squads compromised
• H2H: NYRB 4W–3W, but Charlotte's 6-1 home win (2026-03-21) is a significant recent reference
• NYRB defence fragile: API flags 43% vs Charlotte's 57% defensive rating; NYRB leaked 32 goals in 15 games (season)
• BTTS odds 1.40 (yes) suggest market sees both teams scoring; recent Charlotte form shows attacking threat (2 goals vs ATL, 3 vs TOR)
• Julian Hall (NYRB, 9 goals in 15 apps) is NYRB's key threat; Charlotte's attack unit (Idan Toklomati, Liel Abada) less documented but lively
• Both sides mid-table (NYRB 5th East with 22 pts; Charlotte 6th with 21 pts) — stakes moderate, form-driven outcome likely

Win probability

• New York Red Bulls: 43%
• Draw: 31%
• Charlotte: 26%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 62%

Recent form

New York Red Bulls: LWDWW · Charlotte: DWWL

Standings

• New York Red Bulls: 5th in Eastern Conference, 22 pts
• Charlotte: 6th in Eastern Conference, 21 pts

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 4 · Charlotte 3 · 3 draws

• 2026-03-21: Charlotte 6-1 New York Red Bulls
• 2025-08-24: Charlotte 1-0 New York Red Bulls
• 2025-05-28: New York Red Bulls 4-2 Charlotte
• 2024-08-24: Charlotte 1-1 New York Red Bulls
• 2024-05-29: New York Red Bulls 3-1 Charlotte