New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-25
New York Red Bulls enter this on a strong run (WDWWL, three straight wins before a draw), led by J. Hall's 9 goals in 15 appearances, and home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium tips the balance. Charlotte arrive in decent shape (WWLD) but with only one clean sheet from recent H2H visits here and a -7 GD deficit on the season for the Red Bulls masked by their attacking firepower. The H2H history is lively — five of the last six meetings produced 3+ goals — making an over bet particularly appealing. The API model splits the difference near 50/50, but the Red Bulls' home form and Hall's output gives them the edge.
Key factors
- New York Red Bulls last-5 form: WDWWL (3W in last 4), 9 goals scored in that stretch
- J. Hall: 9 goals and 3 assists in 15 appearances — clear attacking focal point
- Red Bulls poor season GD (-7) but Charlotte also thin on clean sheets (2 in 15 games)
- H2H: 5 of last 6 meetings produced 3+ goals; Charlotte crushed NYRB 6-1 earlier this season
- No confirmed injuries for either side
- Charlotte away recent xG: 1.6 per game, capable of scoring but also leaky
- BTTS priced at 1.50 (67% implied), consistent with H2H and season profiles of both teams
- Total goals O/U market centred around 3.0–3.25 — history supports the over
- Red Bulls home advantage applies; Charlotte plays more possession-based away but lower shot volume
Win probability
- New York Red Bulls: 43%
- Draw: 26%
- Charlotte: 31%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 66%
Recent form
New York Red Bulls: WDWWL · Charlotte: WWLD
Standings
- New York Red Bulls: 5th in Eastern Conference, 22 pts
- Charlotte: 6th in Eastern Conference, 21 pts
Head-to-head
New York Red Bulls 4 · Charlotte 3 · 3 draws
- 2026-03-21: Charlotte 6-1 New York Red Bulls
- 2025-08-24: Charlotte 1-0 New York Red Bulls
- 2025-05-28: New York Red Bulls 4-2 Charlotte
- 2024-08-24: Charlotte 1-1 New York Red Bulls
- 2024-05-29: New York Red Bulls 3-1 Charlotte