New York City FC vs Toronto FC — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-31

New York City FC are strong favourites at home, backed by decisive recent form and head-to-head dominance. NYCFC have won two of their last three (W-W-L-L-D record), scoring 7 and conceding 6 in that span, and sit 5th in the Eastern Conference with +7 goal difference. Toronto FC are in crisis: 12th in the Eastern Conference, -8 goal difference, and winless in their last 5 (L-D-D-L-L), scoring just 3 goals and conceding 7. The fixture shows NYCFC leading 7-2-1 in head-to-head history, including a 3-1 away win just last season. Squad value (€65.25M vs €43M) and the home advantage at Yankee Stadium reinforce a clear edge.

Key factors

• NYCFC's last 5: W-W-L-L-D (7 goals for, 6 against) vs Toronto's L-D-D-L-L (3 for, 7 against) — stark form gap
• NYCFC 7-2-1 in head-to-head history; 3-1 win in July 2025
• NYCFC 5th Eastern Conference (25 pts in 17 games, +7 GD); Toronto 12th (16 pts, -8 GD)
• Squad market value: NYCFC €65.25M >> Toronto €43M (~52% higher)
• Toronto with 3 clean sheets all season and failing to score in 3 of last 5 outings
• No injuries reported for either side; lineups not yet published
• Yankee Stadium home advantage; api_prediction favours NYCFC (72% total, 45% draw spike)

Win probability

• New York City FC: 58%
• Draw: 27%
• Toronto FC: 16%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 49%
• Both teams to score: 48%

Recent form

New York City FC: WWLLD · Toronto FC: LDDLL

Standings

• New York City FC: 5th in Eastern Conference, 25 pts
• Toronto FC: 12th in Eastern Conference, 16 pts

Head-to-head

New York City FC 7 · Toronto FC 2 · 1 draws

• 2025-07-03: New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC
• 2025-04-26: Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC
• 2024-05-11: Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC
• 2024-03-16: New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC
• 2023-09-24: New York City FC 3-0 Toronto FC