New York City FC vs Chicago Fire — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-25
New York City FC face Chicago Fire at home with significant injury troubles undermining their candidacy. NYCFC's squad is decimated with 7 confirmed absentees (D. Baiera, A. Martinez, M. Moralez, A. O'Neill, K. O'Toole, K. Parks, K. Trewin) across multiple positions; Chicago counters with A. Franco out and M. Mbokazi questionable. In head-to-head, NYCFC lead 6-1-3, winning 3-1 at home last season and dominating recent meetings. However, recent form favours Chicago: the away side has won 3 of 5 (L-W-W-W-L), scoring 10 goals with 13 from H. Cuypers (11 apps), while NYCFC are 2-1-2 in their last 5 with only 5 goals despite N. Fernández Mercau's 10-goal season. The bookmaker model (45% home, 45% draw, 10% away) reflects the injury crisis: NYCFC's defence holds marginally (67% vs 33%), but their attack is weak (44% vs 56%). Chicago's form and attacking edge outweigh home advantage given NYCFC's personnel losses.
Key factors
- NYCFC depleted: 7 confirmed injuries (Baiera, Martinez, Moralez, O'Neill, O'Toole, Parks, Trewin) span defence and midfield
- Chicago in form: 3 wins in last 5 (L-W-W-W-L), 10 goals in last 5 matches vs NYCFC's 5
- H. Cuypers 13 goals in 11 apps for Chicago; N. Fernández Mercau 10 goals but in weakened team context
- H2H dominance (NYCFC 6-1-3) historically strong but recent form reversal and injuries negate edge
- Bookmaker model (60.5% home vs 39.5% away by total rating) conflicts with injury scale; Poisson (45% home, 55% away) and Attack (44% home, 56% away) suggest away value
- Chicago 8-2-4 season record (clean sheets 6) vs NYCFC 5-4-6 (clean sheets 3) shows structural difference
Win probability
- New York City FC: 38%
- Draw: 25%
- Chicago Fire: 37%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 56%
- Both teams to score: 59%
Recent form
New York City FC: WLLDW · Chicago Fire: LWWWL
Standings
- New York City FC: 8th in Eastern Conference, 19 pts
- Chicago Fire: 3rd in Eastern Conference, 26 pts
Head-to-head
New York City FC 6 · Chicago Fire 1 · 3 draws
- 2025-09-14: Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FC
- 2025-05-25: New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire
- 2024-08-24: New York City FC 2-2 Chicago Fire
- 2024-07-14: Chicago Fire 0-0 New York City FC
- 2023-10-22: New York City FC 1-0 Chicago Fire