New England Revolution vs Toronto FC — AI prediction
Result
New England Revolution 0-0 Toronto FC
Kick-off: 2026-07-22
New England sit 4th in the East with 8 wins from 14 and hold a clear form edge (82% form rating vs 18%) over a Toronto side on a run of DLLLL — conceding 12 goals in their last 5. The API model strongly backs the Revolution (63% total), and H2H at Gillette is 4-3 in NE's favour with recent results leaning their way. Toronto's defensive frailty (29 GA in 15 games, -7 GD) and four questionable absentees — including Matheus Pereira and Gomis — further weaken their threat on the road.
Key factors
- New England: 4th East, 8W-1D-5L, 22 GF / 18 GA season; strong home record at Gillette.
- Toronto: DLLLL last 5, 12 GA in that stretch; worst defensive record of teams near them in the East (29 GA, -7 GD).
- Toronto questionable absentees: Matheus Pereira (groin), N. Gomis (thigh), M. Cimermancic (thigh), L. Stefanovic (foot) — multiple potential starters doubtful.
- NE questionable: Campana (hamstring), Feingold (lower body), Langoni (personal) — attacking options thin but team still functional.
- API model: 82% form for NE, 63% total — advice is 1X2 home/draw double chance; Poisson strongly favours NE (79%).
- H2H: NE 4W-3D-3L overall; NE won 2-0 at Toronto in May 2025 in most recent away meeting.
- BTTS odds (yes 1.70) reflect both teams' tendencies to concede but NE kept only 3 clean sheets all season.
- Goals O/U line around 2.5-2.75 — NE average ~1.57 GF and 1.29 GA per game; Toronto ~1.47 GF but 1.93 GA; combined projects near 3 goals.
- Recent NE xG has been modest (1.03 avg last 3) suggesting some caution on high-scoring home win.
Win probability
- New England Revolution: 53%
- Draw: 28%
- Toronto FC: 19%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 54%
- Both teams to score: 56%
Recent form
New England Revolution: LWL · Toronto FC: DLLLL
Standings
- New England Revolution: 4th in Eastern Conference, 25 pts
- Toronto FC: 12th in Eastern Conference, 15 pts
Head-to-head
New England Revolution 4 · Toronto FC 3 · 3 draws
- 2025-09-13: New England Revolution 1-1 Toronto FC
- 2025-05-03: Toronto FC 0-2 New England Revolution
- 2024-04-20: Toronto FC 1-0 New England Revolution
- 2024-03-03: New England Revolution 0-1 Toronto FC
- 2023-06-24: New England Revolution 2-1 Toronto FC