New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-25
New England Revolution hold clear advantage at home despite recent inconsistency. The Revs sit 4th in the Eastern Conference with 25 points from 14 games, while Atlanta United languishes 14th with just 11 points from 15 games—a -10 goal difference and 7 games where they failed to score. New England's last-5 shows D-L-W form (2 goals for, 2 against); Atlanta's is D-L-L-L-D (4 for, 10 against). Both sides carry significant injuries—Atlanta especially hard hit with Amador, Diaz, Fortune, and Sergio Santos all missing—but the form and league position disparity is decisive. Home win rated at ~55% probability; draw plausible at ~35%, given New England's recent draw and inconsistency.
Key factors
- New England 4th in East (25 pts, 14 games); Atlanta 14th (11 pts, 15 games)—clear gulf in table standing.
- Atlanta's season: 3 wins, 10 losses, -10 GD; failed to score in 7 games; defence conceded 24 goals.
- New England's recent form mixed: D vs Toronto (0-0, 64% possession), L vs Charlotte (0-1), W vs Minnesota (2-1).
- Atlanta's last-5: D-L-L-L-D; conceded 10 goals in last 4 games; only 1 clean sheet all season.
- Atlanta missing key players: Amador (tendon), Diaz (transfer), Fortune, Sergio Santos (calf); Alzate and Edwards questionable.
- New England injuries lighter: Campana (hamstring), Farrell (lower-body) missing; Feingold questionable.
- Odds imply ~50% home, 27% draw, 21% away; bookmaker model also favours home (45% home, 45% draw).
- Gillette Stadium is New England's fortress; home advantage modest but present in MLS.
Win probability
- New England Revolution: 52%
- Draw: 30%
- Atlanta United FC: 18%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 47%
Recent form
New England Revolution: DLW · Atlanta United FC: DLLLD
Standings
- New England Revolution: 4th in Eastern Conference, 25 pts
- Atlanta United FC: 14th in Eastern Conference, 11 pts