NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-08-19
This is an early UEFA Champions League knockout qualifier between NEC Nijmegen and Bodo/Glimt, a classic upset-prone fixture. Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form (4 wins in last 5, 15 goals in 5 matches vs. NEC's 2 wins in 4, 8 goals) and lead decisively on attacking output (75% API attack rating vs. 25%). NEC's defence is ranked higher by the model (83% vs. 17%), but both sides carry heavy injury burdens. The market prices home and away equally at 2.45, while the API model edges NEC at 35% home win probability; however, this appears reputation-driven rather than supported by current form or player availability. Bodo/Glimt's recent output and league position (Norwegian top-flight vs. NEC's Dutch Eredivisie) suggest they are the sharper outfit despite being away.
Key factors
- Bodo/Glimt's last-5 record (WWDWW) vs. NEC's (WWLDL): clear edge in consistency and goals scored (15 in 5 vs. 8 in 5).
- API model Attack rating: Bodo/Glimt 75%, NEC 25% — overwhelming advantage to the away side.
- Heavy injuries to both sides: NEC missing 5 players (Schuurs, Ogawa, Moslih, Ouaissa, Sandler); Bodo/Glimt missing 3 (Evjen, Mikkelsen, Sjong) and Gundersen questionable.
- UEFA coefficients unavailable for both; squads cannot be directly valued. Reputation favours NEC (Eredivisie vs. Norwegian), but current-season form and firepower favour Bodo/Glimt.
- Home advantage (Goffertstadion) nominal in a knockout; no recent H2H data.
- BTTS odds (1.35 yes, 2.90 no) imply 73% probability both score; Bodo/Glimt's attacking form and NEC's porous defence support this.
Win probability
- NEC Nijmegen: 34%
- Draw: 28%
- Bodo/Glimt: 38%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 68%
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen: WWLDL · Bodo/Glimt: WWDWW