Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest — AI prediction

Result

Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest

Kick-off: 2026-08-29

Liverpool host Nottingham Forest at Anfield in a season-opener where both sides are undercooked. Liverpool drew 2–2 with Newcastle after defeats to Monaco and Leeds in pre-season, drawing their league opener 0–0 with Como; they drew 2–2 away to Newcastle on Aug 23, showing attacking intent (27 shots, xG 2.98) but defensive frailty (2 conceded). Forest lost their league opener 0–1 to Leeds (8 Aug 25, 12 shots, 2 on target, xG 0.66) and sit bottom of the table. Liverpool's injury toll is heavy—Chiesa, Ekitike, Bajcetic, Bradley, Gomez, Leoni all out—but they field a superior squad. Head-to-head favours Liverpool (5 wins, 3 losses); they won 1–0 away in Feb 2026 and 0–3 at home in Nov 2025. At home, home advantage is a modest edge in a fixture where Liverpool are clear favourites by form, xG, and recent possession dominance. Forest's recent two losses (0–2, 0–1 to Leeds) without scoring underlines their struggle; the market prices Liverpool at 1.53, implying ~65% home win. We favour Liverpool but expect a tighter margin given pre-season rust and Liverpool's defensive wobbles.

Key factors

  • Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle (A) last fixture: 27 shots, 7 on target, xG 2.98 shows attacking threat but defensive vulnerability (2 conceded).
  • Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds (H) Aug 25: only 8 shots, 2 on target, xG 0.66; bottom of table with no goals in league play.
  • Liverpool's heavy injury list (Chiesa, Ekitike, Bajcetic, Bradley, Gomez, Leoni out) reduces depth but squad still comfortably stronger.
  • Head-to-head: Liverpool 5 wins, Forest 3; recent meetings 1–0 (Away, Feb 2026), 3–0 (Home, Nov 2025) favour Liverpool.
  • Forest missing I. Sangare (calf), N. Savona (knee), R. Yates (questionable); reduces midfield/defensive options.
  • Liverpool at 1.53 (65% implied) vs Forest at 5.50 (18% implied); value in a Draw (4.33, ~23%) given both sides' pre-season form.

Win probability

  • Liverpool: 62%
  • Draw: 23%
  • Nottingham Forest: 15%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 57%

Recent form

Liverpool: DDLLW · Nottingham Forest: LLWWL

Standings

  • Liverpool: 9th in Premier League, 1 pts
  • Nottingham Forest: 15th in Premier League, 0 pts

Head-to-head

Liverpool 5 · Nottingham Forest 3 · 1 draws

  • 2026-02-22: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool
  • 2025-11-22: Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest
  • 2025-01-14: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool
  • 2024-09-14: Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-03-02: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool

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