Lille vs Estac Troyes — AI prediction

Result

Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes

Kick-off: 2026-09-13

Lille host Estac Troyes at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in a league fixture where the home side hold a clear edge. Lille sit 5th with 7 points from 3 games (W2 D1), form marked WDWDD, and have conceded just 5 goals in 8 games across pre-season and early league play. Estac are 9th with 4 points from 3 games (W1 D1 L1), having lost 6-2 to Strasbourg in their last outing and shipping 9 goals in 5 recent matches. Lille's head-to-head record is 4-3 in their favour over Estac, and their recent record includes a 5-1 demolition in January 2023. Both sides carry injuries (Lille missing Igamane, Estac without Boura, Gozzi, and Titi), but Estac's absences are more damaging. The bookmaker model backs Lille at 45% with a DNB edge (1.15 odds), which aligns with form and defensive solidity. A Lille win is the primary play.

Key factors

  • Lille's form (WDWDD, 2 wins in last 3) vs Estac's volatility (L vs Strasbourg 2-6, W vs Lorient, 3 draws before that)
  • Lille conceded 5 goals in 8 recent games; Estac conceded 9 in last 5 matches
  • Lille's defensive rating 78% (api_prediction) vs Estac's 22%; form metric 64% vs 36%
  • Head-to-head: Lille 4 wins, Estac 3 wins; Lille won 5-1 and 2-0 in 2023
  • Estac missing key players (Boura, Gozzi, Titi) across multiple positions; Lille missing Igamane (striker knee injury)
  • Lille 5th in table, Estac 9th; +3 goal difference vs -3; 7 points vs 4 points
  • Home advantage at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (neutral venue: false)
  • Both teams shot on target: Lille 6 (out of 10), Estac 3 (out of 16) in recent matches—attacking efficiency gap

Win probability

  • Lille: 65%
  • Draw: 22%
  • Estac Troyes: 13%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 47%

Recent form

Lille: WDWDD · Estac Troyes: LWDDD

Standings

  • Lille: 5th in Ligue 1, 7 pts
  • Estac Troyes: 9th in Ligue 1, 4 pts

Head-to-head

Lille 4 · Estac Troyes 3 · 3 draws

  • 2023-06-03: Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille
  • 2023-01-15: Lille 5-1 Estac Troyes
  • 2023-01-08: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes
  • 2022-05-01: Estac Troyes 3-0 Lille
  • 2021-12-04: Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes

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