Lecce vs Monza — AI prediction

Result

Lecce 3-2 Monza

Kick-off: 2026-09-13

Lecce host Monza at Via del Mare in Serie A. Lecce show mixed league form (1W–1L in two Serie A matches, +3 goals overall last five) but hold a decisive head-to-head record (4W–1L–5D across all meetings, winning 2–1 at home last December). Monza are in crisis: 1 point from 3 Serie A games, goal difference −4, and arrive without Pessina, Toure, and Ziolkowski (three confirmed injuries), plus Ciurria and Ngonge questionable. Lecce, missing only Berisha (rest) and Geubbels (ankle), enjoy home advantage and superior recent form relative to their opponent. The bookmaker model leans Lecce (45% home, 45% draw advice), supported by form (Lecce 75% vs Monza 25%) and head-to-head edge. Lecce favoured.

Key factors

• Lecce 4W–1L–5D vs Monza head-to-head; won 2–1 at home in December 2024.
• Monza in severe crisis: 1 point from 3 league games, −4 GD; Lecce stable (3 points from 2).
• Monza missing Pessina (knee), Toure (contusion), Ziolkowski (foot) — three key absentees confirmed.
• Lecce form: 75% (api_prediction) vs Monza 25%; recent wins vs Venezia and Torino (away).
• Home advantage: Lecce at Via del Mare, neutral venue not applicable.
• Recent results: Lecce LLWLW (last 5), Monza DWLLW — Lecce's two most recent are W; Monza's recent draw vs Parma (1–1) only positive sign.

Win probability

• Lecce: 41%
• Draw: 38%
• Monza: 21%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 50%

Recent form

Lecce: LLWLW · Monza: DWLLW

Standings

• Lecce: 12th in Serie A, 3 pts
• Monza: 17th in Serie A, 1 pts

Head-to-head

Lecce 4 · Monza 1 · 5 draws

• 2025-02-16: Monza 0-0 Lecce
• 2024-12-15: Lecce 2-1 Monza
• 2024-04-27: Lecce 1-1 Monza
• 2023-09-17: Monza 1-1 Lecce
• 2023-05-28: Monza 0-1 Lecce