KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers — AI prediction

Result

KuPS 1-0 Shamrock Rovers

Kick-off: 2026-08-27

This is a Europa Conference League knockout tie replay after a 1–1 draw on 20 August. Both sides are evenly matched on UEFA club coefficient (KuPS 14.0 vs Shamrock Rovers 17.875) and recent form — each has drawn 1–1 in the head-to-head, and both carry identical season records (0W–1D–0L, 1–1 scoreline). KuPS lost heavily at home to Mariehamn 2–4 three days before this fixture, conceding 4 goals; Shamrock Rovers have also been fragile defensively, shipping 11 in their last 5 (vs KuPS's 9). The api_prediction returns an even 33% split across all outcomes, and the market odds (1.96 home, 3.30 draw, 3.90 away) suggest marginal home advantage. With no injury absentees, no form separation, and a recent goalfest context, expect another tight, open contest.

Key factors

  • UEFA coefficients favour Shamrock Rovers slightly (17.875 vs 14.0) but both are mid-tier European clubs; KuPS is ranked 38th among UEFA nations vs Shamrock 32nd, confirming marginal visitor advantage in club strength.
  • Both sides drew 1–1 on 20 August; no head-to-head history otherwise. Previous fixture showed equal footing (50% possession, 2 SOT each).
  • Recent form volatile: KuPS lost 2–4 at home to Mariehamn on 23 Aug (3 days before this replay); Shamrock lost 1–5 away to Egnatia on 13 Aug. Both have conceded heavily in recent weeks (KuPS 9 in 5, Shamrock 11 in 5).
  • No confirmed injuries for either side; lineups unavailable.
  • Shamrock Rovers hold a slight structural edge (better UEFA coefficient and country ranking), but KuPS has home advantage. Market implies home at ~51% implied probability (1.96 odds).
  • Api_prediction: 33% home / 33% draw / 33% away — indicates genuine uncertainty; no clear form/attack/defence separation between the two.

Win probability

  • KuPS: 41%
  • Draw: 29%
  • Shamrock Rovers: 29%

Goals & scoring

  • Over 2.5 goals: 45%
  • Both teams to score: 50%

Recent form

KuPS: LDWLD · Shamrock Rovers: DLLW

Head-to-head

KuPS 0 · Shamrock Rovers 0 · 1 draws

  • 2026-08-20: Shamrock Rovers 1-1 KuPS

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