Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb — AI prediction

Result

Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb

Kick-off: 2026-08-11

Dinamo Zagreb are clear favourites in a UEFA Champions League regular-phase tie against Kauno Žalgiris. Zagreb hold a decisive coefficient edge (32.0 vs 6.0) and a superior domestic league rank (23rd vs 46th out of 55 UEFA associations), underpinning their stronger squad. They demolished Žalgiris 5-0 just a week ago in a head-to-head, demonstrating vast class. Zagreb's recent form is excellent (3 wins, 1 draw in last 4; 11 goals for, 3 against), with strong shot and possession metrics; Žalgiris are inconsistent (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 7 goals for, 5 against in last 5). Back Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1.38.

Key factors

• Dinamo Zagreb hold a commanding UEFA coefficient lead (32.0 vs 6.0) and domestic league rank advantage (23rd vs 46th), clear structural superiority.
• Recent head-to-head: Zagreb beat Žalgiris 5-0 on 2026-08-04, just a week ago, with 29 shots, 7 on target, and 3.18 xG.
• Zagreb's recent form: 3 wins, 1 draw; 11 goals for, 3 against in last 4 matches. Žalgiris: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 7 for, 5 against in last 5.
• Possession and shot dominance: Zagreb averaged 65% possession and 27 shots per game in recent fixtures; Žalgiris inconsistent attacking output.
• No injuries reported for either side.
• API model suggests away win at 45%, but the on-pitch evidence (recent 5-0 demolition, coefficient gap, form disparity) supports a higher Zagreb probability than the 1.38 odds imply.

Win probability

• Kauno Žalgiris: 11%
• Draw: 18%
• Dinamo Zagreb: 70%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 64%
• Both teams to score: 45%

Recent form

Kauno Žalgiris: WLWDW · Dinamo Zagreb: WWWD

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris 0 · Dinamo Zagreb 1 · 0 draws

• 2026-08-04: Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Kauno Žalgiris