Japan vs Sweden — AI prediction

Result

Japan 1-1 Sweden

Kick-off: 2026-06-25

Japan arrive in excellent form with a WDWWW last five, including a 4-0 win over Tunisia, a 2-2 draw away to the Netherlands, and clean-sheet wins over Iceland, England and Scotland. Their defensive solidity stands out — just 2 goals conceded across five matches with multiple clean sheets — while scoring 9. Ayase Ueda (2 goals, 1 assist) and Daichi Kamada (2 goals) lead the attack, though they lose Shuto Machino to illness. Sweden, by contrast, are inconsistent (LWDLW) and leaky: 13 goals conceded against 12 scored, including a heavy 1-5 loss to the Netherlands and a 1-3 defeat to Norway, balanced by a 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia. Sweden carry genuine attacking threat in Gyokeres and Isak, but their defensive frailty is the headline weakness. This is a neutral-venue tournament so home advantage is nominal. The market makes Japan favourites (~1.91) and that aligns with their superior form and defensive record; Sweden's firepower means goals at both ends remain plausible, but Japan's miserly back line tempers BTTS somewhat. No head-to-head data is provided.

Key factors

• Japan in strong form (WDWWW) with only 2 goals conceded in 5 and multiple clean sheets
• Sweden defensively poor: 13 conceded in 5, including 1-5 vs Netherlands and 1-3 vs Norway
• Ueda (2g,1a) and Kamada (2g) lead Japan; Machino out through illness
• Sweden possess potent strikers (Gyokeres, Isak) but inconsistent results
• Neutral venue — home advantage nominal
• No head-to-head data available

Win probability

• Japan: 52%
• Draw: 27%
• Sweden: 21%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 55%
• Both teams to score: 56%

Recent form

Japan: WDWWW · Sweden: LWDLW