Result

Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool

Kick-off: 2026-09-04

Liverpool arrive as heavy favourites despite a sluggish league start (2 pts from 2 games, 13th place), but face serious injury setbacks: Chiesa, Bradley, Ekitike, Gomez, and Leoni all out. Ipswich have won 3 of their last 5 pre-season/recent fixtures (LWWWW form) and sit 12th with 3 pts, showing resilience at home (2–1 vs Sunderland, 3–1 vs Leicester). The head-to-head is stark — Liverpool won 4–1 in January 2025 and 2–0 in August 2024 — yet the odds (1.48 away, 5.50 home) underestimate Ipswich's improved recent mettle and Liverpool's depleted attack. With multiple attacking injuries eroding Liverpool's goal threat and Ipswich's defensive record solid (9 conceded in 5 recent games), a Liverpool win is likely but closer than odds suggest; a draw or low-scoring away win holds value.

Key factors

Liverpool missing Chiesa, Ekitike (Achilles), Bradley, Gomez, Leoni — five attacking/defensive options gone, weakening squad depth mid-season.

Ipswich's recent form: 3 wins in last 5 (including 3–1 home vs Leicester, 2–1 vs Sunderland); LWWWW shape shows home resilience.

Liverpool's league form poor (2 pts in 2 games, 13th), with only 3 wins in last 5; recent pre-season draw vs Nottingham (2–2) and loss to Newcastle (2–2 in league, heavy xG underperformance: 2.98 xG, 2 goals).

Head-to-head: Liverpool 2–0 win (Aug 2024) and 4–1 win (Jan 2025); dominance on paper, but recent form volatility and injuries shift in-match balance.

Ipswich defensively sound in recent fixtures (4.0 corners conceded avg, 40.33% possession suggests disciplined shape); Liverpool's xG output suppressed (1.9 last 3 games).

Odds skew heavily to away (1.48): implies ~67% Liverpool probability; draw (4.65) ~22%, home (5.50) ~18%. Recent evidence and injuries narrow gap.

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