Ilves vs Stjarnan — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-30

Ilves hosts Stjarnan in a Conference League regular-phase fixture. Stjarnan just beat Ilves 1–0 away seven days ago and now travel to Finland on strong recent form (2W–1D–2L in last 5, with 6 goals for and only 3 against in last 3 league games). Ilves counters with 1W–1D–1L in 3 games and conceded 2 goals in those same 3 outings, but the head-to-head edge and the visiting team's superior early-season trajectory favour Stjarnan to avoid defeat. A draw remains plausible given the low-scoring nature of early qualifying ties; home advantage and Ilves' cleaner defence prevent a strong away call, but Stjarnan's recent win on this exact fixture tips the balance toward either a draw or Stjarnan victory.

Key factors

• Stjarnan beat Ilves 1–0 away just 7 days ago (2026-07-23); visiting team carries momentum.
• Stjarnan's recent form: 2W–1D–2L last 5, with 6 goals in last 3 games; Ilves 1W–1D–1L in 3 games.
• Stjarnan season stats (3 games): 2W–1D–0L, 6 GF–3 GA; Ilves (3 games): 1W–1D–1L, 3 GF–2 GA.
• UEFA coefficients close: Ilves 3.5 vs Stjarnan 3.304; country ranks differ (Ilves 38th, Stjarnan 31st in strength). Neither has squad market value data.
• H2H: Stjarnan 1–0 Ilves (July 23); no prior meetings in record.
• Lineups and injuries unavailable; no key player data.
• API model: 45% draw, 45% Stjarnan win, 10% Ilves win; rates form/attack heavily in favour of away side; home defence rated 60% vs away 40%.
• Low-scoring tie expected; BTTS odds (1.62 yes / 2.10 no) reflect defensive solidity on both sides.
• Home advantage present but not decisive; Stjarnan's recent high form and head-to-head edge mitigate it.

Win probability

• Ilves: 33%
• Draw: 36%
• Stjarnan: 31%

Recent form

Ilves: WLWWD · Stjarnan: LWLDW

Head-to-head

Ilves 0 · Stjarnan 1 · 0 draws

• 2026-07-23: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves