Ilves vs HNK Rijeka — AI prediction

Result

Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka

Kick-off: 2026-08-13

HNK Rijeka holds a decisive edge in both club strength and current form. The visitors' UEFA coefficient of 18.625 (ranked 23rd in UEFA) vastly outmatches Ilves (3.5, ranked 38th) — a structural quality gap that explains the 1.67 away odds. On the pitch, Rijeka are 4-0 in their last five and beat Ilves 1-0 away on 6 August with 14 shots on target to Ilves' 1; they've conceded just once in three league games. Ilves won at home vs Mariehamn on 9 August but drew and lost their prior two, showing inconsistency. This is a second leg to the 6 August tie, and Rijeka's superior possession (66-67%), dominance (12 SOT in recent games), and zero losses make them clear favourites despite the away fixture.

Key factors

• UEFA coefficient gap: Rijeka 18.625 (rank 23) vs Ilves 3.5 (rank 38) — decisive structural edge
• H2H: Rijeka won 1-0 at Ilves on 6 Aug with 14 SOT; Ilves managed only 1 SOT
• Form: Rijeka 4-0 in last 5, three consecutive league wins with 3 GA in 3 games (3 clean sheets); Ilves WLLWW with 2 losses in last 5
• Possession & control: Rijeka avg 66-67% vs Ilves 34%; Rijeka dominated recent tie with 9 corners to Ilves' 1
• No injuries reported for either side
• Regular-season Conference League fixture (low upset risk vs qualifying tie), but early in the season — minor uncertainty remains

Win probability

• Ilves: 20%
• Draw: 25%
• HNK Rijeka: 55%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 46%

Recent form

Ilves: WLLWW · HNK Rijeka: WWWW

Head-to-head

Ilves 0 · HNK Rijeka 1 · 0 draws

• 2026-08-06: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves