Hradec Králové vs Tromso — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-30

Hradec Králové face Tromsø in a Europa League regular-phase tie after edging a 1–0 away win on 23 July. Tromsø is the stronger club by UEFA coefficient (4.0 v 0.0) and country rank (Norway 14 v Czech Republic 10), but Hradec's recent form is superior: four unbeaten (DDWW, 9 goals in 4 games) versus Tromsø's mixed record (WWWDD, 13 goals but also two draws). Crucially, Hradec just beat Tromsø 1–0 away and now play at home; Tromsø have conceded in all four outings since early June and have not been particularly clinical away. The API model backs Hradec (50% home, 50% draw, 0% away), citing form, attack, defence and H2H. Expect a tight affair, but Hradec's home advantage and recent direct edge make them slight favourites.

Key factors

• Hradec Králové beat Tromsø 1–0 away on 23 July (7 days ago) in the previous tie.
• Tromsø hold a higher UEFA coefficient (4.0 v 0.0) and are from a stronger league (Norway rank 14 v Czech Republic rank 10), but this is a REGULAR PHASE match, not early qualifying—both sides are now match-sharp.
• Hradec's last 4 games: DDWW, 9 goals, clean sheet rate improving (1–1, 3–3 draws, 3–0 and 2–1 wins); all away fixtures.
• Tromsø's last 5: WWWDD, 13 goals, 3 conceded; three wins on home soil (Valerenga 4–0, Orgryte 4–1, Ham-Kam away 4–1), but two draws in May (KFUM Oslo 0–0, Aalesund 1–1).
• Tromsø conceded in all 4 recent outings (Aalesund 1–1, Ham-Kam 4–1 loss of control, Valerenga 4–0 clean sheet, Orgryte 4–1); defensive vulnerability.
• Home advantage favours Hradec; they are unbeaten in last 5 (2W in that sample, 1H, 3A).
• API prediction 50/50 home/draw (0% away) aligns with Hradec form edge but acknowledges Tromsø's residual quality.

Win probability

• Hradec Králové: 39%
• Draw: 34%
• Tromso: 26%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 55%
• Both teams to score: 48%

Recent form

Hradec Králové: DDWW · Tromso: WWWDD

Head-to-head

Hradec Králové 1 · Tromso 0 · 0 draws

• 2026-07-23: Tromso 0-1 Hradec Králové