HNK Rijeka vs Derry City — AI prediction

Result

HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City

Kick-off: 2026-07-23

Rijeka arrive in dominant form — five straight wins, 11 goals scored, just 1 conceded, with 59% possession and 21 shots per observed game. Derry City have lost three of their last five, conceding 9 in that stretch (including a 5-goal aggregate loss to CSKA Sofia), and managed only 3.5 shots on target per game recently. The gulf in form, defensive solidity and home advantage makes Rijeka heavy favourites; the market's 1.17 reflects a near-certainty, but the handicap and goals markets offer more value.

Key factors

• Rijeka: 5W-0D-0L last 5, scoring 11 and conceding only 1 — exceptional defensive record.
• Rijeka averaged 21 shots and 7 corners per home game in recent data; dominant territorial control.
• Derry City: 3 losses in last 5, conceding 9 goals — particularly porous defensively.
• Derry lost both legs vs CSKA Sofia (aggregate 3-5), suggesting vulnerability against organised European sides.
• No lineups, key player data, or H2H available — increased uncertainty on exact margins.
• No injury absences confirmed for either side.
• API prediction returns 33/33/33 (no data) — must rely entirely on form evidence.
• Market implies ~85% Rijeka win probability (1.17 odds); Asian handicap -2.0 line at 1.85 suggests market also expects a multi-goal margin.
• BTTS 'No' at 1.47 implied ~68% — consistent with Rijeka's clean-sheet form and Derry's limited shot conversion (3.5 SoT/game).
• Derry away total under 0.5 goals at 1.54 suggests market heavily discounts Derry scoring.

Win probability

• HNK Rijeka: 83%
• Draw: 11%
• Derry City: 6%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 61%
• Both teams to score: 35%

Recent form

HNK Rijeka: WWWWW · Derry City: WLLLW