Gremio vs Fluminense — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

Fluminense holds a clear edge: stronger league position (4th vs 16th), superior recent form (DWWDW vs LLWLW), and a decisive squad value advantage (€113.5m vs €101.6m). Despite injuries to John Kennedy (their 9-goal striker) and Matheus Reis, Fluminense's defensive resilience (60% defence rating, 4 GA in last 5) and goal-scoring threat (13 GF in last 5) outweigh Gremio's home advantage. The API model flags Fluminense as marginal favourite (45% win, 45% draw), but on-pitch evidence—form, points, and personnel—supports backing Fluminense or the draw; a draw is plausible given competitive balance and injuries.

Key factors

Fluminense ranked 4th (32 pts, 9W–5L–5D) vs Gremio 16th (21 pts, 5W–6L–8D); 11-point gap reflects sustained form gap
Fluminense last 5: DWWDW (13 GF, 4 GA); Gremio last 5: LLWLW (9 GF, 9 GA) — away form decisively better
Fluminense squad value €113.5m vs Gremio €101.6m (~11% advantage); confirms stronger playing personnel
Fluminense missing John Kennedy (9 goals, leading scorer) and Matheus Reis (LB); Gremio missing Marlon (CB, broken ankle) and L. Perez (suspension)
H2H favours Fluminense (4 wins vs 5 for Gremio in recent 10); last three: Flu 2–1, Gremio 1–2, Flu 2–1 (alternating, competitive)
Fluminense defence rated 60%, Gremio 40% in API comparison; clean-sheet disparity (3 vs 5 season-wide) suggests open play
API model implies 45% Flu win, 45% draw, 10% Gremio—undervalues draw risk given injuries and historical competitiveness

Win probability

Gremio: 25%
Draw: 34%
Fluminense: 41%

Goals & scoring

Over 2.5 goals: 52%
Both teams to score: 58%

Recent form

Gremio: LLWLW · Fluminense: DWWDW

Standings

Gremio: 16th in Serie A, 21 pts
Fluminense: 4th in Serie A, 32 pts

Head-to-head

Gremio 5 · Fluminense 4 · 1 draws

2026-01-28: Fluminense 2-1 Gremio
2025-12-03: Gremio 1-2 Fluminense
2025-08-03: Fluminense 1-0 Gremio
2024-11-02: Fluminense 2-2 Gremio
2024-08-20: Fluminense 2-1 Gremio